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I would venture that 99.999% of people on this site weren't in the industry prior to 2010. Maybe Ricky Rosay & Count_Chocula ? Maybe? Hard to compare this decade/cycle to the last when I was just getting out of school around then. This is the only cycle I've ever known.
Haha, I'm not that old... I was living in a fraternity house, drinking five nights a week, and trying to convince my now wife that I wasn't a total dip shit (I was). My my, how things change...
That said, it is an interesting question. I'll have to think about it.
How's everything CRE ! I am talking about 2010 to today btw... not prior to 2010.
It's a great question - I'm more or less saying "I don't have anything to compare 2010-today to"
I'd like to personally thank BX for making those of us in industrial cool.
amen
Biggest takeaway is the absolute explosion of luxury for-rent multifamily and the collapse of the condo market.
Yeah luxury for rent.... is anyone renting them?
Certainly. I haven't had one project not stabilize within a year
The great abundance of capital seeking yield in a low incredibly low interest environment.
This, equating to the dramatic decrease of yield spread for everything from debt constant vs. cap-rate, stabilized YoC vs. disposition cap-rate, and going-in cap-rate vs. stabilized cap-rate. I think those buyers which purchased true core deals 3-5 years ago with an endless hold strategy will end up doing far better from an absolute return standpoint than the value-add space right now despite the drastically higher risk as they start refinancing at ridiculously low rates.
I agree with this, they can sit there and refi once PP expires and if rents lower they are cashing out and all of the interest rate drops are meat on the bone for potential upside with a home run hurdle that is already low
I would say the Death of the Cycle.
I'm wrong but it might take a while to prove it. The increased sophistication of real estate investors/lenders has muted CAP Rate volititly. With low rates/yeilds, the establishment of Real Estate as a sector, and the bondogles of capital in investors hands right now, there isn't a good reason for CAP rate volititly. Furthermore with the gaurd rails on banks, lenders aren't throwing gas on the fire which has ultimaley led to slow and steady growth "cycle."
I have yet to see a project break ground that l thought what the hell are they thinking. All the dum money in RE got cleaned out in the GR and now its full of Pension funds looking for 5% yields.
Where the hell are you located? I'm in NYC and every other deal I see I think "what the hell are they thinking?" And then I remember that the Sponsors are going to syndicate out all their equity, take a fat fee, and maybe a little of back-end upside. So I guess it's LP money which seems crazy.
And anyone who starts talking about "the death of the cycle" is the first person to take it up the ass when times change. Shit always hits the fan. Always. As long as humans are irrational (aka human), there will always be fuckups and those fuckups will always cascade.
I believe the largest fundamental driver of real estate investment/capital markets post 2010 was the upgrade of real estate to a standalone sector by S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI which caused a dramatic amount of institutional capital to pour into the space.
I noticed more racial diversity and more women in commercial real estate over the past decade; it’s creeping up the ranks. Granted I live in SF so there is more diversity in general. I believe the diversity of capital sources into US real estate is also a factor in the diversification of the workforce. Whereas capital might have come from NYC mainly now it comes from many more places; the impacts the allocators which impacts the operators, etc. Also the “institutionalization” of the industry leading to hiring the most qualified person on paper vs nepotism, for more firms.
On-campus business school (Undergraduate or Grad) interest in real estate careers has not hit the peak I saw in 2007; just from my observations in the Bay Area. A lot of competing opportunities.
I believe as an economy and industry we rely on a growing population. I’m interested in how immigration will be impacted. Domestic migration patterns will be something to watch. Deflation will be bad if that occurs. Moderate inflation is good.
I predict that as more and more malls go belly up, they will be turned into Amazon and BDSM warehouses
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