The Upcoming 25-Year Great Depression Start in 2015

Is it true that 25 year great depression is heading towards us in 2015 start... I found one article on ... 25yeargreatdepression site ... I hope this won't happen... What you guys think on this...?

12 Comments
 

I think long-term stagnation is plausible. Job growth of 200,000 a month is barely--if not at all--keeping pace with population growth, the youth are weighted down with historically high debts, GDP growth is staying just ahead of inflation, and real wages have stagnated if not declined.

I think the U.S. has hit a point of diminishing marginal growth--a mathematical certainty at some point, but a certainty that has been accelerated forward through poor public policy.

 

As the baby-boomers retire and take their burdensome cost structures with them there will be tremendous opportunity in this country for the current generation heading into the workforce in roughly 10 years. In the interim, asset prices are too high for the current workforce, it just isn't sustainable. Working theory, most of that re-adjustment will come from long term stagnation in asset prices as wages 'catch up', aided by additional supply coming into the market from downsizing, retiring, etc. With that said, if the "Great Recession" couldn't cause a "Great Depression", I doubt we'll encounter a depression more than twice as long as the original.

 

Zero growth is not necessarily a bad thing so long as overall living standards can be maintained. Population growth in the US is 1%pa, so the only means by which the economy can continue to expand is through productivity gains. The brunt of these gains to be had from the information age have largely been realised already. We should be more concerned with increasing volatility within the cycle rather than the long term growth rate.. we're already consuming more resources than the planet can sustain whereas wild cyclicality more than proportionally hurts lower income quartiles.

 

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