It seems as though many people are fleeing California because of soaring rent increases, weak infrastructure/high traffic, high taxes, and lack of water. Where will the top places to live and develop real estate be in the next 5-10 years?
It seems as if the best places would be business friendly, moderate temperatures, low cost of living, and booming economies.
Austin Texas ( although it seems as if the word is out and a lot of traffic)
Seattle ( prices already soaring though)
Charlotte
Raleigh
Tampa
Dallas
Atlanta
This highly depends on what you are looking for out of your experience. There are many great places to live if you are looking to work in a particular industry. But maybe you are looking more for a rich cultural experience? Maybe somewhere you can enjoy the outdoors and pursue a more active lifestyle?
There are a few cities that have been rapidly expanding over the past several years. Many online articles will even mention that places like Oklahoma City are great places to live considering the low COL and availability of cheap real estate, but on the flip side, the lifestyle there may be subpar to you if you consider the lack of things to do or don't like the people or culture there.
Another thing to consider as far as "top places to live" is maybe you can look into moving to where they are implementing the new "Smart Cities". These are places like Dallas, San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles (mostly California, but there are several other cities across the country that are doing this).
Smart cities will be cities that are implementing complete connectivity and is said that it will drastically revolutionize the way we experience life. There are many videos on YouTube that go into more detail about it, and the possibilities of these "Smart Cities" are definitely interesting...but at the same time a big concern about this is the health risks associated with implementing 5G technology (which is the technology that will allow for these smart cities to thrive and function). The 5G wireless signal is transmitted at a MUCH higher frequency than the 3G/4G signals and many have warned that it is harmful to human life. On top of that, what many critics have said about smart cities is that it is literally Big Brother on steroids. Basically everything will be connected and your privacy will be non-existent...
Anywho, apologies for the Mensa-level response, but just wanted to point out that your question is a bit loaded. At the end of the day, it really depends on what you are looking to get out of your relocation experience.
I am bullish on three cities that will continue to do well, DC, Seattle & LA.
Seattle due to the influx of tech talent, google, facebook, etc continue to lease millions of SF since the beginning of 2018. AI, cloud, etc are all driven by firms out of Seattle, bread and butter business for Microsoft and Amazon as well as other tech firms opening shop in Seattle to ride the wave. While Amazon leases more space than the next 40 combined largest companies in Seattle, HQ2 helps to diversity leased space in Seattle and it's a good thing. You still have a shit load of crains and the class A multifamily is starting to soften with landlords giving concessions. Office and Industrial are BOOMING and so is class B & C multifamily.
DC is another favorite, most likely home of Amazon HQ2. DC/NOVA area will continue to do well due to government contractors, almost recession proof! Trump will get us into war in the near future once the 4% BS GDP is back to 2% so I am somewhat bullish on DC due to government contracts and cyber security shops making $$$ to protect various government agencies.
LA due to the Olympics in 8-10 years and it's starting to become a stronger tech hub.
Smart Cities is a buzz word! You can expect any live, work, play city with young folks with $$$ to grow in the coming years as folks move from the burbs to the city center. This is happening all over the US. It's similar to the SHIFT from garden style to mid rise / high rise apartment buildings. I am sure in a few years, there would be a study that garden style communities are BACK!!
Tech or telecommunication firms creating 5G are going to have the products in the most densely populated cities that will yield $$$. It's common sense!!
Agree with DC. I'm a native of NoVA and it's amazing how much the entire city and surrounding metro has changed. There was an article that shared before/after pictures of what places like H Street, Navy Yard and SW Waterfront looked like from 10 years ago, and it's remarkable. The city used to be predominantly a company town for the government and contractors, but that's been changing a lot over the past few years. Way more financial and tech firms moving into the area. Places that used to be no-go zones 5 years ago are now covered with luxury apartments charging $2,000 for a studio with 95% occupancy.
Heres the economics of the years until the Olympics:
Year 1: Growth Year 2: Growth Year 3: Growth Year 4: Olympic Happens Year 5: City goes bankrupt Year 6: Amazon buys the whole city and converts it into a distribution warehouse
New York will never fade
NYC, SF, LA, DC, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, etc.
Not too different from now really
I'm real bullish on places like Charlotte, Raleigh, etc. but they will remain second tier cities. Fantastic, sure, but not at the top.
When it comes to development, right now, I think you need to look further down the list to third or fourth tier cities like Birmingham, AL.
Mtn West. is seeing a ton of development right now.
LA resident here. CA does have its issues with high taxes, high costs, poor infrastructure, etc., but I'm not sure people are leaving in droves (yet). A lot of people talk about it (me included), but talking about it and actually doing it are two different things.
The way I think of LA / CA right now is there are a lot of people trying to do big things (e.g. ramp up the tech scene, build Rams stadium, develop the entire corridor from Inglewood to Torrence, etc.) but there are just as many politicians and community organizers determined to stop them.
I'd suggest watching the rent control prop (on the ballot this fall), the proposal to tax carried interest (an assembly bill), and the governor's race to get a read on how things will tilt. If the politicians can be kept at bay, I think LA will have some pretty huge opps (particularly the corridor around Rams stadium). If not, word is places like Austin and Vegas could be exit routes.
Detroit--underrated development, proximity to great universities. property prices picking up, huge redevelopments of downtown, new offices for microsoft, quicken loans, etc. huge shipping channel/trade hub, will grow rapidly once the question about fresh water access (looking at you, Las Vegas) grows in coming decades
It depends on what you're looking for. I think cheaper cities such as Denver, Atlanta, Raleigh, Charlotte, will offer great value for married professionals looking to raise kids. If we are talking about singles coming out of top schools, NYC and SF will remain big hubs due to their respective dominance in finance and tech and the high concentration of human capital.
Can other cities replace NYC and SF? Seattle could give SF a run for the money in terms of tech, but Seattle tech is still Amazon+Microsoft and satellite offices of SF based firms. There is very little tech VC or PE.
I think L.A. is super intriguing: amazing weather, great lifestyle, beautiful women, and reasonable cost of living compared to NYC and SF. The one major downside is traffic. In terms of industry, it's surprisingly more diverse than what the conventional wisdom would suggest. There is a decent amount of finance (PE and fixed income investing), traditional tech, digital media, entertainment, gaming (e.g. Snapchat, Netflix, YouTube, Riot Games, Activision, PlayStation, Warner Brothers, etc.). The tech jobs for obvious reasons are more geared towards the media and entertainment space. The diversity of industries is a breath of fresh air from SF and Seattle.
I think Austin is overrated (Texas in general). Aside from cost of living and taxes, I'm not sure what the draw is. It loses to LA in weather, beaches, outdoor stuff, and lifestyle. It loses to Seattle and SF in tech opportunities. It loses to Chicago and NYC in all urban amenities.
Atlanta is growing, but it's still a Southern city, and it has a tough time attracting top tier talent. It needs to drastically improve its public transportation before it can even compete with the big boys.
D.C. is underrated, although I am not a huge fan. I think it is a top contender for Amazon HQ2, and with the increasing growth of the federal government, there will be ton of opportunities. The city has an active singles scene, and nightlife and restaurants are surprisingly strong.
I'm very curious to see what happens to Chicago in the coming years. I love that city and wrote a long WSO post about it. However, there just aren't that many great jobs there, despite its size and importance. Trading is virtually dead, and the city has fewer top finance opportunities than even Boston and L.A. The tech scene is nascent, struggling to break through. And Rahm's horrible mismanagement of the city, with the out of control crime rates, has warped the public's perception of Chicago.
Good post. TX does lose to those cities you mentioned on those things, although I could flip some of those around (i.e. Seattle and SF lose to TX in energy opportunities). For your somewhat successful young finance person, making $100k in TX gives you ~$15k more disposable income than in LA (half due to state taxes, rest due to rent and other general COL), for example (only gets worse if you look at NYC/SF). So it's a fairly meaningful amount of money to most. I recently moved from LA to TX. I miss the shit out of the weather and unique things to do, but it's just so expensive to raise a family there when a decent house costs $1MM+. So TX is a nice, if unspectacular, meeting in the middle - you can save a ton while still living in decent cities. It's not super sexy, but it's also not living in Des Moines.
Raleigh, Dallas, Austin for sure. Add Scottsdale to the list.
What about Los Angeles? I know people are fleeing the SF bay area due to cost of living and street pooping, but if I had to pick a city on the west coast it would be LA.
Once Los Angeles has completed its massive public transportation project before the Olympics in 2028, I'm not sure what someone can knock it about other than high state income taxes (which SF faces as well).
uhh wut The entire state is on fire: www.calfire.com Earthquakes: http://www.seismolab.caltech.edu/earthquakes.html
People experiencing homelessness: https://www.kcet.org/shows/city-rising/a-2018-snapshot-of-homelessness-…
Crime: http://www.lapdonline.org/crime_mapping_and_compstat
Weather: https://la.curbed.com/2018/8/3/17649386/los-angeles-july-hottest-month-…
Housing Crisis: http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fi-evictions/
Worlds worst traffic: https://www.dailynews.com/2018/04/19/los-angeles-has-the-worlds-worst-t…