Feel like this question gets asked on here from time to time.
As an applicant this year who wants to pivot from MO to FO and get into the M7 I found these admit stats very helpful. I am using the ratio of PE/VC to other Financial Services candidates as a proxy for the adcomms bias towards FO roles over MO/BO in general. As you can see, chances at H/S/W may be stacked against you, but you may have a good shot at Booth.
Wharton https://mba.wharton.upenn.edu/class-profile/ Of the entire class, 12% is PE/VC, 9% is IB, and 6% is Other Financial Services Assume of that 6%, another half or 3% is other FO candidates (S/T and Research) That is a 3:24 ratio for you MO:FO in an already stacked finance bucket and rather unlikely.
HBS https://www.hbs.edu/mba/admissions/class-profile/Pages/default.aspx Of the entire class, 16% is PE/VC and 12% is Other Financial Services, including IB Looking at the ratio for finance entry already being stacked towards PE/VC, it is fair to say that most of the financial services candidates are being filled from FO roles. Again unlikely.
Stanford https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/programs/mba/admission/class-profile 19% PE/VC and 7% Financial Services, even worse than H/W
Booth https://www.chicagobooth.edu/programs/full-time 8% PE/VC and a whopping 21% Financial Services, who I am willing to bet are not all in IB or S/T. MO/BO people could make up as much as a third of finance people the class in ideal circumstances.
None of the other schools even have reporting on the incoming class coming from PE so assuming its insignificant anywhere else and the backgrounds even in the finance bucket are not as competitive.
I think your instincts are generally correct. I'm at an HSW now and my wife is at another; there are admittedly very few people from MO, though some exist. I would add though that I think S&T, while FO, is very underrepresented within B-School. On the interest side it doesn't really fit the career track, and on the admissions side, they just don't really seem to like traders all that much from what I've heard -- more common is the research to IM pivot.
However, there's some other stuff to keep in mind. First, you certainly don't need HSW for a front office role. All of the M7, plus even T10-15 can get you decent FO recruiting. Booth, Kellogg, Ross, Columbia, Tuck, etc. are all totally good options, and friendlier to MO candidates. In general, there's definitely more to FO placement than prestige. For example, Harvard and Stanford aren't great for IBD recruiting in the sense that relatively low student demand means lower campus presence for most banks, and distance from NYC certainly makes it harder to compete with Columbia, Stern, or even Wharton students who can be meeting for coffee chats whenever.
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