Today a February contract for Canadian Heavies (WCS) was trading in the $20 range (WTI -14). This is in a high cost production region so few producers (if any) in Western Canada are making any money. Due to the long term nature of the mega projects in the Oilsands (50 yrs), a lot of the production won't shut-in any time soon, despite the econs. Any views on the forward differentials to WTI? They wont widen too far due to how low WTI is, while they can't narrow much past WTI-10 due to pipe tariffs on Enbridge. My view is it narrows a little bit due to high demand in next summer driving season, and a lack of heavies in the US.
My only other prediction is no growth in oilsands exploration for the next few years, I'd hate to be a geologist in Alberta right now. But that won't narrow diffs to WTI for years.
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