Commodity/Power trading outlook
Been trying to get a solid grasp of the trading world and I've recently been enticed by s&t role at BBs, but with the future of the industry looking a bit shaky as far as compensation and headcount at banks, I've been trying to find more insight on alternate career paths. Trading at a bank interested me due to the focus on quantitative skill sets and the upside in comp if one performs well, but as far as many posters on this site make it out, the outlook of the trading world does not seem great, considering the top-heavy nature of many seats and the growing risk of automation. Obviously this seems to be blown out of proportion by posters calling this industry dying, but since I'm still young and have quite some time to consider career paths, commodity trading has caught my attention. Compared to other careers on this site, information is a good bit more sparse and much less frequently talked about, but I've noticed a good few people noting/predicting the optimistic outlook of power/energy trading over the next decade.
I plan on majoring econ and applied math, and ideally getting into a t20 uni, so how reasonable does a career at a major trading house look compared to more traditional trading seats at a bank? Does a quant focused major make the most sense for an energy trading job, or would other majors make the job easier? What does the career path at one of these houses look like fresh out of uni? Furthermore, assuming at the very least decent results trading, how does average career progression look regarding hours, compensation, and long term goals? I've been trying to stay away from thinking about exit opps in these industries, but assuming a trader makes his way to a good seat and continues to perform, is it a career that can be sustained until retirement or do people see many traders eventually exit for less intense roles inside of or adjacent to the industry that still pay well? I guess overall I'm just trying to gauge how smart of a choice it is to start thinking about/focusing on a career in a seat like this compared to something like rates trading at a BB, assuming both are doable, and any insight on this industry would be a huge help. Thanks (Please let me know if anything I said is a misconception or just outright wrong, as I'm still trying to learn more about the world of trading in general, and while I feel like I'm starting to understand it a decent bit, I'm open to all info)
Based on the most helpful WSO content, here's what you need to know about the outlook and career path in commodity/power trading compared to traditional trading seats at banks:
Commodity/Power Trading Outlook
Comparison to Traditional Trading Seats at Banks
Career Path at Major Trading Houses
Sustainability and Exit Opportunities
Final Thoughts
For more detailed insights, you can explore the following threads on WSO: - https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/trading/qa-physical-oil-trading?c…</a">Q&A: Physical Oil Trading - https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/sales-and-trading/energy-trading-…</a">Energy Trading: Career Path, Lifestyle, Wages, etc
This should give you a comprehensive understanding of the landscape and help you make an informed decision about your career path.
Sources: Q&A: ex-bank trader now running crypto hedge fund. questions?, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/trading/sales-trading-vs-ib?customgpt=1, Trading Power, Carbon & NGOs, Q&A: Physical Oil Trading, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/trading/compensation-at-oil-majors-and-physical-houses-for-traffic-desk-and-traders?customgpt=1
There are several questions within your post, so it is difficult to give you a short and comprehensive answer. I offer my two cents below, having been in commodities trading (oil, power, gas, carbon) for several years, but still it is just a personal opinion.
I have not worked in BB S&T, so take with a grain of salt, but from what I see and hear, the level of automation is severely lacking in many commodities markets. As you suggested, this presents many opportunities and lower risk of trade execution being automated, but at the same time it can be very frustrating, seeing how inefficient some things are. In terms of headcount, commodities industry is quite small, so overall there are less trading seats available compared to financial markets. That is a potential downside.
Education - you can find people with very varied backgrounds in the industry, so there is no standard template. Quant subjects, or Econ + applied math that you are considering are for sure good and will not hinder your chances in any way.
Career path out of uni - I have the feeling that getting a commodity trading seat is more difficult and less straighforward compared to banks, where the career progression is more structured and there are more places for grads. Joining TDP is usually the most direct path to commodity trading seat. Difficult to get, though. Other than that, aim to get a foot in the door in any position in the industry, as close to trading as possible. Once there, being good at your role, making life easier for traders and being generally likeable is best way to get noticed for potential move to junior trader, once such spot opens up. For many people it never does, by no fault of their own. Just bad timing/luck. Easy to get pigeonholder in ops/support role and difficult to hired as trader in different company without prev. experience.
Career progression - once in trading seat, essentially the only thing that matters is making money. Not much of progression beyond changing titles (junior/senior), which come with larger risk allocations, potentially getting "better" pick of regional or product coverage as you get more senior. If you find yourself at a good place that works with your trading style, milk it as long as you can. Hours in general are not bad, I would say you can get by with 10-11h days on average. But outside of that being on call is common, depending on the specific commodity. On top of that, you will usually think about the market, read, learn new stuff etc. but I would not consider that work, if you enjoy it.
Lateral move to different company (or type of company, e.g. trading house, major, utility, HF, bank...) is most common exit for traders. Changing commodities is also sometimes possible, most often during specific market cycle periods. Some people transition to management role, but that requires different skills and also has it's own challenges. I personally don't know many traders over 45 years old, so I guess there is some point when either you A) make enough money to consider leaving, or B) make too little money and are forced to leave. There are of course exceptions when people want to keep trading and are able to maintain their edge.
Ex-traders are normally able to find other roles within the commodity space that value their experience and connections (e.g. portfolio/asset roles in industry, consultants, IT trading tools providers, analytics companies, strategic advisors, brokers etc.).
When it comes to choosing BB S&T or commodities, there is no easy answer. If you have options, pick the one you are genuinely interested in. I personally see the future brighter in commodities, but I am obviously biased.
great response, thank you man. could u shed some more light on TDP programs? Whats comp looking like during those few years? What's the conversion rate of TDP into trading/junior trading roles? Are there really any target schools for programs like these outside of the obvious unis?
And just on another note, why does it feel like commod trading is so much more lowkey of a career path compared to other finance roles despite the huge potential upside? I feel like so many more hardos would be flocking towards it, so is it just the overall low seat count or the risk or what?
Commodi quia quis aut qui iusto voluptate autem iste. Est voluptatem reprehenderit ad recusandae vero consequatur. Nihil tempora dolores earum magnam eius id et saepe. Dolor et rem voluptate saepe. Exercitationem modi velit aut ut saepe animi. Molestiae tempore quo sint enim et quibusdam incidunt vitae. Est architecto quidem eos nobis nesciunt.
Vitae dolorem vero provident libero hic aut. Sequi quasi ipsam ex sunt quis ut magnam et. Eos nihil similique amet totam nam quibusdam dolores unde. Error omnis ratione dolores autem amet illum corrupti. Sed laudantium sunt qui pariatur dolores. Eos autem temporibus libero harum natus a ex.
Dignissimos voluptatibus omnis nobis tempora tenetur. Magnam reprehenderit id voluptas nesciunt velit. Beatae sunt excepturi quisquam cumque. Molestias quis ut ab enim. Ullam molestiae et iure ut. Saepe sunt soluta nihil voluptatem possimus non distinctio. Et illo explicabo dolorum debitis.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...