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Based on the most helpful WSO content, here’s a breakdown of your questions and considerations:

1. Percentage of T&S Grads Landing Trading Seats Internally

• The T&S graduate program at oil majors like Shell or BP does not guarantee a direct path to a trading seat. As you mentioned, rotations in risk, analytics, and operations are common, and transitioning to a trading seat often requires applying to competitive programs like the Trading Development Program (TDP).
• While exact percentages are not publicly available, it’s widely acknowledged that only a small fraction of grads secure trading seats internally. The process is competitive, and many TDP slots are filled by experienced hires rather than internal grads.

2. External Exits to Trading Houses (Vitol, Trafigura, Mercuria, etc.)

• Exiting to trading houses is possible but challenging if you don’t secure a trading seat internally. Trading houses typically value direct trading experience, so grads without trading exposure may find themselves funneled into risk or operations roles rather than junior trading seats.
• However, having a background at a top oil major is still highly regarded, and networking or leveraging niche expertise (e.g., physical commodities knowledge) can improve your chances.

3. Do Trading Houses Hire Ex-Majors (Non-Traders) into Junior Trading Seats?

• Trading houses are more likely to hire ex-majors into risk, operations, or analytics roles rather than directly into trading seats. Transitioning to a trading role from these positions is possible but not guaranteed and often depends on internal mobility and performance.

4. Bank S&T vs. Major T&S for Becoming a Trader

• Bank S&T: If your goal is to become a trader, starting in a bank S&T role is generally more reliable. Banks offer structured paths to trading seats, and the probability of landing a trading role is higher compared to the T&S route at oil majors.
• Major T&S: While T&S at an oil major provides exposure to physical commodities and real asset flows, the path to a trading seat is less direct and more competitive. Additionally, the timeline to reach a trading seat (e.g., completing the grad scheme + TDP) can be longer.

5. Transferability to Hedge Funds or Macro Funds

• Major T&S Experience: Experience in physical commodities trading can be valuable for hedge funds or macro funds with a focus on energy or commodities. However, the skill set may be less transferable to funds focused on financial instruments or macro strategies.
• Bank S&T Experience: Bank S&T experience, particularly in flow trading or derivatives, is often more transferable to hedge funds or macro funds. The exposure to financial markets and trading strategies aligns more closely with the skill sets sought by these funds.

Path A vs. Path B: Distribution of Outcomes

• Path A (Major → TDP → Trader): This path has a lower probability of success due to the competitive nature of TDP selection and the limited number of trading seats. However, if successful, it can lead to a lucrative career in physical commodities trading.
• Path B (Trader in S&T at Bank): This path offers a more structured and reliable route to a trading seat. While the nature of trading (e.g., flow trading) differs from physical commodities, the probability of landing a trading role is higher.

Key Takeaways

• If your primary goal is to secure a trading seat, bank S&T offers a more predictable and structured path.
• T&S at an oil major can be a great option if you’re passionate about physical commodities, but the path to trading is less direct and more competitive.
• Consider your long-term interests (physical vs. financial trading) and risk tolerance when deciding between these paths.
  
  Sources: Is S&T still a good career path?, Sales in S&T: Dead-end career path in 2020?, WSO Hall of Fame: Trading Forum, Sales and Trading - A Comprehensive Guide