Heavy Vs Light Crude and Refinery Economics
Hi,
Now with the shale boom going on, US will have access to more lighter grade crude.
Would the shale phenomenon really put a huge downward pressure on heavy crude or would the effects be muted given many refineries in the US have already sunk so much into upgrading refinery complexity and the same refineries (which I assume to be many) may have incentive to stick with refining heavier oil as reconfiguration might be expense?
given that refineries have already paid those costs and heavier cruide is cheaper i can't see it having as much of an impact as a lot of people would think, but good q
Refinery expansion projects take significant time and capital. Tupac is right that most refineries (such as BP Whiting) have already made such investments and therefore will only low API crude slates. This doesn't mean the high API bbls won't find homes but you'll see them blended with heavy-molasses API bbls to get a more mid range slate, which can go to refineries like WNR which are absolutely killing it.
Interesting points guys. blender, you mention that some refineries such as BP Whiting will blend light with heavy to get mid range slates, but if the refineries are still oriented toward a mid/heavy slate, do you see a likelihood that heavy-light Differential will narrow? (light will have to fall faster than heavy to accommodate the fact that heavier oil will have a relative higher demand as Heavies will still be the main ingredient to US refinery crude slate)
I would assume there is also a chance that more light will find their way to Canada? Our 19 refineries has less complexity creep tendency than the US, and Eastern Canada refineries often gets oil from US anyways since the transportation costs are cheaper than getting oil from Alberta.
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