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June 30, 2026
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is ZH ever NOT predicting a major market crash? they are no doubt a great resource, but my lord i dont think theyve ever been optimistic on anything--not necessarily saying they are wrong...i agree we should be worried by "life after QE2"...but i mean they are just wildly pessimistic about EVERYTHING
agree ZH is strongly -ve biased
I don't think confidence indicators will go inverse parabolic if there's no QE3. The S&P might get whacked for a few points (pretty likely actually) but predicting a crash is a little too ZH to my taste.
Of course. Some negative catalysts: (1) 2012/2014 LBO debt will need to be refi'd. What if it's not. (2) Fiscal imbalances across the globe. Risk free rate repricing? Clearly resulting on tax rates increasing, consumer demand being curtailed in the near/medium term. (3) Demographic shift driving fundamental long term changes in risk appetite. All of this will be somewhat countered by innovation trends which will help support some wealth creation.
still some good 5 or so years for the next crash XD
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