Is natural gas trading dead
Title is clickbait on purpose because many natty traders are lurking on this forum. But I ask because with Europe oversupplied and demand destruction + Freeport reopening, wouldn't the excesss supply create lack of volatility (which is what happened to ags pre 2022).
Yeah, it's over. We haven't seen these prices since 2021 so definitely going to zero and volatility is gone forever. Or Russia could launch a nuke and China could invade Taiwan and in that case we are back to a moonshot.
Commodities are cyclical and will have booms and busts. Everyone adjusts and while it may be more difficult to have huge years (unless you have been short the last 2 months and, in that case, congratulations) people will still find a way to make money if they are good at their jobs.
Please shut the fuck up prospect. You cannot compare ags to natty cause ags had a consistent oversupply situation over the years and we saw a fundamental shift in ags trading model.
Couple years back I explained how vol was coming back and then last year I explained how "c2g switching models" will break down and 2022 will be nothing like seen before. Think 2023 cash volatility is going to be off the charts again soon here and think the market will have to solve various delivered markets problems.
As for Europe, it is far from oversupplied they are in a war the moment will leave at that.
Pardon my ignorance here as I am stepping outside my circle of competence, but been hearing lots from energy people "in the know" that European gas storage levels are very high and will most likely last this winter barring another attack or sharp cold snap.
Well you are not a prospect, but as mentioned below some of the reasons by other poster. The main concept is all "demand destruction in Europe" has come from industrial demand meaning the economy has basically shut-down to preserve gas storage so by convention the goal is to keep gas storage as full as possible.
Europe is still very far from creating a solution to replace Russian supply long-term while at the same time all the things done to "relax" residential demand or make a healthier power stack is temporary.
Turn back on the economy today and Europe goes short again. That said some long-term fixes are coming.
Thanks. And while I'm not a prospect, I was at one point but found a different path to succeed in haha.
Nah agree with original post, natty is dead for 2023
The 2 problems with supply/demand were solved with EP L2000 coming back in service and Freeport start-up. There are really only bullish uncertainties but processing is only coming online, no new pipes in the SW are coming in-service until late this year, vol is gone..wake me up in 2024
Can't comment on US gas - but as Marcellus says Europe is at war. This winter we were blessed by warm, wet and windy weather and a lack of markets willing to battle it out for LNG.
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