Hi WSO,
I am sophomore student and we are debating in the trading group at my school about this trade. We plan to obtain exposure via ETFs and perhaps other indexes.
If you were given a bunch of cash, which one would got long and which one would go short? Why?
Japan, Turkey, Switzerland and Australia.
I would go long Australia for the commodity kick and short Switzerland for the erratic interventionism and demographics.
Why do you talk about demographics when talking about a trade? Their demographics have sucked for 20 years, the thesis has been the same for 20 years, and anybody who has tried has gotten steamrolled. Sure, eventually there will be a crisis, but unless you have very compelling reasons as to why now (better than the people in the last 20 years) then I cannot understand why you think there is a trade there.
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