Jump ship to crypto startup

I'm currently on a commodities desk that focuses on more fundamental based, directional type trading. I have an opportunity to join a small quant trading/ HFT market making group that has been doing very well this year and is consistently beating some of the bigger names in the market (alameda, jump, gsr) in terms of volume.

I mainly have 3 concerns about the opportunity:
1 - I'm fairly concerned about the risk that retail crypto flow has already peaked, which is the big money maker in HFT
2 - The opportunity cost of going the HFT career route vs a more discretionary trading route, as quant traders typically have a higher floor / lower ceiling in terms of comp.
3 - The crypto scene is becoming crowded, with some of the big shops starting to put significant investment into their crypto desks. This makes it hard to capture more market share.

A big pro for the opportunity is that id be joining a small group, and it's a pretty clear path to a partner seat. In this case, there is significant upside if the group really takes off and is able to grow aggressively/ take more market share.

What are your opinions on the career outlook of HFT/ crypto trading?

 

OP here. I forgot to mention that I have the background to do well in quant trading, and believe I could be successful. But I don’t know if I’d enjoy looking through high frequency order book data all day, with no regard to any macro events that are happening. This would be in contrast to what I am doing now, with the thrill of running risk and trying to relate real world events back to my positions.

 

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