Market that Sonya Sotomayor's nomination is de-railed?

on a binary term (100 payoff if she does) I'd be 17 - 28, i guess we'll see

i'd say more like 1 - 5 based on 1) Obama's unlimited power and 2) GOP be scared to attack a Hispanic woman

Does her ethnicity increase the probaility she's hired illegal immigrants? This shut down Bill Richardson's nomination.

ehhh my feeling is that anyone Obama nominates is equally (ie. highly) likely to have hired illegals as maids and/or to have evaded their taxes (batting what 0.850 there??).

i'm not familiar with the facts around the Richardson one (he prob got derailed by Obama himself) but remember this is a hugely more important nomination, probably Obama's most important act to-date, and i'm sure he spent tons of time pouring over all the ultra-leftist candidates to pick his fave. it would take something way more extreme to derail this one. also GOP is pretty much MIA these days

No doubt, she will be confirmed.

^interesting...we will see

ill make it 26/34 on the follow.

let's get a trade done!

Wouldn't recommend taking odds against on a sure thing. I say this for a few reasons: 1. The Repubs won't stymie her because they're afraid to lose the Hispanic vote (which they don't get anyway). 2. She's actually not going to change the makeup of the Court. I think we'd have a more lively discussion on our hands if she would. 3. The Dems could pass her unanimously if they wanted. 4. Dovetailing from #1, no Repub has the balls/doesn't want to alienate the so-called moderates to actually call this woman what she is: a left-wing judicial activist intent on imposing her (lack of) morals and values on the American people without any thought given to guidance provided by the Constitution.

40 SOLD as many as you want

Lol nice arb Sean & Structure looks like Jimbo is underwater quite a bit.

"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.

When I saw this thread, that arb with Intrade is exactly what I thought of, good call :-)

i should start reading these things more closely, i thought the market was that she'd go through.