the lack of TRIGGERS
Hi guys,
Might be the wrong forum, anyway, I'm a junior in equities S&T at Wernham-Hogg in Slough and after reading tons of research reports during my first year I've reached one conclusion - where are the triggers?
Surely, lots of the research reports include a great case/story that sometimes are right even. But, it usually takes time. Looong time even. This is something I kind of miss in the reports; the analyst just state his case and view and will then just stick with it until it either turns right, or wrong. Thing is, until the right/wrong thing turns out, a lot of other things will happen. A lot of other opportunities to win some or go bust. And that fantastic case might be a shit case until that trigger is triggered and people realize it is time to start revalue the stock.
How do u guys work with identifying triggers? Any good reads out there to recommend?
All the best, David Brent - Basically a chilled out entertainer
depends on your definition of triggers and how specific you want to get.. e.g. do you want an analyst to predict in advance the iPhone 6 bendagate problem and its effect on sales? seems unrealistic..
Yeh, surely unrealistic to predict lots of stuff, and most times I think those reports include great and thorough work. But, as for myself - junior, naive and broke - in the land of idea oversupply I easily get very keen on a case, realizing more and more that the good case isn't very useful without an even better trigger. Might be a too general topic, but just thought it would be interesting to hear some thoughts on how people of the internet are reasoning about it.
All the best from another sunny day in Slough
You're describing the big difference between fundamental research and trading. The vast majority of research that you'll have access to generally doesn't attempt to define catalyst(s) for entry nor does it help define trading risk profile.
I can't really offer a perfect reading selection to help you create what you're looking for but I would suggest Market Wizards / New Market Wizards if you want a bit more insight into how some of the most successful big name traders think about trades.
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