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Based on the fact that we have a central bank that may not have a problem with $200 oil as long as they think it is transitory.
rosenberg's been saying this for weeks now (as long as the market keeps rate differentials in the forefront, don't try to fade this
there is a trade war being fought thru monetary policy and the ECB is one of the few central banks in the world not participating in it. At least the Europeans arent actively trying to destroy their currency.
It's far to over-extended. Should be a good short term short at the very least, although I rarely short when the things are trending up.
I agree. I feel as thought the fed needs to tighten the money supply....
I am short the euro/usd right now. I dont know how the market has ignored the sovereign debt crisis. However, I think what we saw over the last ten days with that huge 300 pip eur/usd correction (and head-scratching rally) showed the underlying fragility inherent in the Euro right now.
Im short, but im scared. I dont know where the damn ceiling is on the euro.
Why don't you close your current short, wait for a trend reversal conformation and then re-enter? If it continues to trend up irrationally, I can only hope you have stops in place.
Tighten the money supply? Why do you think the Fed has become so aggressive with QE measures? Tightening the money supply coupled with capital inflows from Europe will strengthen the dollar to unsustainable levels. Walk me through how that increases production?
EUR, SEK, NOK, etc are the only currencies not particpating in the global currency depreciation war. Until either the asians agree to finnally let their ccys apreciate or the ben bernank blinks and gets hawkish those currencies are the ones to own. forget the PIIGS stuff that is a side-show relative to this global standoff between the fed and the asian central banks about who will be the one to finnally give i and allow currency apreciation.
If you're interested in shorting the euro, I would wait for the 2008 lows to be tested. If that level breaks, buy stocks and gold instead.
...and there it is
Looks like a temporary correction opposed to a trend reversal.
Then again, it's a bit too early to be sure.
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