I am long far out on the curve in my PA as the string of terrible economic stats and short-term growth gauges have been terrible and I think it would be totally crazy for the fed to tighten as quickly as is currently priced into the eurodollar curve.
I also believe that it seems like everyone hates bonds right now and lots of notable big names are even short (Gross, et al.) which makes me even more likely to get on the other side of that trade and to potentially even expect a short squeeze.
A month or so ago, I was worried about QE2 rolling off and the impact of the Fed no longer buying all of the treasury's issuance, and now I think there is an increasing likelihood that there will be a 3rd round of QE. Its hard for me to tell but it also seems like markets have priced this in the past month or so with a rally in bonds, fall in the dollar, fall in commodities (but flat for precious metals), and not too large of a stock sell-off which could corroborate expectations of a huge wave of liquidity that would be bullish for stocks.
Any thoughts? Very interested to hear opinions from sell-side traders.
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