Where do you see bond yields in 6 months?
I mean in Treasuries specifically, but its all the same nowadays.
The past two weeks have seen a big rally in yields from the all-time lows of this month's bond auction. Jackson Hole and Helicopter Ben are around the corner. Despite Merkel telling everyone it will be OK, the Eurozone will have a rough autumn as peripherals try to shore up their finances.
What does it all mean for the bond market?
I think the Fed realizes there's no bang left in the QE gun. We'll get some accommodative policy (changes in IOER?) but European woes will drive up yields in Treasuries and Bunds more than anything the Fed can do. Too bad for stocks though.
It means treasury yields will be about the same as they are now at the end of the year. 0% short rates, 2% 10 year, and 3% 30 year.
Don’t spend too much time trying to predict the economy -Peter Lynch
Bond prices have nowhere to go but down, but not as soon as 6 months.
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