Would oil really point to $200/bbl by August?
Considering the Middle East is the source of more than a quarter of the world's oil, should tensions escalate to the point where Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and prevents oil from getting to market they say oil could hit $200.
I would feel sorry for the rest of the world, but I am up to my ass in an oil trade and that would suit me fine....
Completely disagree, I believe we will see stable prices and a move to the low end of $80. Additionally, Netanyahu will continue to talk out of his ass but nothing we happen in the Strait before the November elections.
Probably right. Besides, Iran doesn't actually have the capacity to shut down the gulf.
If they did try , it would invite significant US naval and air retaliation. Which wouldn't then be limited to just clearing the strait.
I would bet that it would be limited to just keeping the straight open, with the possibility of knocking out a few suspected nuke sites. Anything more than that would just be too many problems....
Thats the dumbest statement i ever heard...u r talking abt next month ..and its iran not world war 3
too young for MBA ...:P
Does the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Canadian Tar sands still work? then no $200 Oil
Milkman is spot on -- $200/bbl WTI won't happen - I will never say never, but from an economic standpoint you have to make the commodity affordable. Also, I would not worry about the Strait -- the Gulf won't be shut down..we have forces in place to make sure our economy doesn't fall victim to Iran/ counter party demands.
On the flip side, if we're at @ $200/bbl, I might as well go buy that Lambo I've always wanted.
I am by no means an expert, but I do work closely with our Commodity Manager who monitors oil and speaks with external experts. NO ONE that I've heard is calling for anything relatively close to this.
He just released his 2013 prelim outlook and it's much closer to where we're at today than the crazy number's you're saying. We called out risk due to Iran, but nothing like that.
Personally, I doubt we'll leave the 80-105 range for WTI in the next 12 months unless there is significant turmoil. Much less over doubling in price in the next month.
This is so lame..Iran will never do this, they know the consequenses. Only problem can be if Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facility....in that case oil prices will go up...but still wont touch 200
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