How do I find the right companies for a comparable analysis?

Very new to this all so bear with me. 

If I need to do a valuation analysis on a private company in Series B, what companies do I use to benchmark/compare? Would I only use public companies or try to find info on private ones? Having trouble finding info on private companies (specifically their revenues) and so it seems to me like I mostly have to rely on public companies then. 

Is this the correct approach? 

4 Comments
 

When conducting a comparable analysis for a private company in Series B, here's how you can approach it effectively:

  1. Start with Public Companies:
    Public companies are often the go-to for comparable analysis because their financial data is readily available. Look for companies that share similar characteristics with your target, such as:

    • Industry or sector.
    • Business model (e.g., SaaS, marketplace, etc.).
    • Growth stage (as close to Series B as possible, though this can be tricky with public companies).
    • Revenue size and growth rates.

    Public comps are particularly useful for establishing valuation multiples like EV/Revenue or EV/EBITDA, which you can then apply to your private company.

  2. Private Companies as Comps:
    While public companies are easier to analyze, private companies can provide more relevant benchmarks, especially if they are closer in size, stage, and market focus. However, finding reliable data on private companies can be challenging. Here are some tips:

    • Use industry reports: Platforms like CB Insights, PitchBook, or Crunchbase often provide insights into private company valuations and funding rounds.
    • Estimate revenues: You can triangulate private company revenues using methods like:
      • News articles or interviews where executives mention sales figures or customer numbers.
      • Revenue per employee estimates (common in certain industries).
      • Industry averages for similar-sized companies.
  3. Focus on Specific Metrics:
    For a Series B company, revenue multiples (e.g., EV/Revenue) are often more relevant than profitability metrics like EBITDA, as these companies are typically not yet profitable. Additionally, consider SaaS-specific metrics if applicable, such as ARR growth, LTV/CAC ratios, and churn rates.

  4. Tailor Your Comp Set:

    • For public companies, prioritize those with similar growth rates and business models, even if they are larger in size.
    • For private companies, focus on those in the same funding stage or with similar market dynamics.
  5. Challenges with Private Data:
    If private company data is too sparse, relying on public companies is a valid approach. However, be mindful of the differences in scale and adjust your multiples accordingly. For example, smaller, high-growth private companies often command higher multiples than their larger, more mature public counterparts.

  6. Alternative Sources:

    • Use platforms like CapIQ or FactSet for detailed public company data.
    • Explore niche industry publications or databases for private company insights.
    • Check investor presentations, conference call transcripts, or even Glassdoor for indirect data points.

By combining public comps with any private data you can gather, you'll create a more robust and defensible valuation analysis.

Sources: Valuing a small privately held services company, Basic Guide Ramping Up On A Company With Public Information Part Three, Private Equity Recruiting Process (From Banking), Q&A: Technology IB Analyst, How on Earth to put together company profile for a private company?

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There is no "correct approach" to valuation as it's a subjective analysis. 

  1. Public comps -- Project out the growth of the company a few years, take the current price and 3-5x based on the MoM you're underwriting, and see what multiples it yields. Is that higher than public comps? Should it be? How likely is it that this company will actually hit these growth targets?
  2. Private transaction comps -- This is hard to get but if you're in VC you should have an internal tracker at your firm that gives you a sense of valuation of similar deals and the revenue. You can look at M&A as well but those might be inflated.
  3. Unique valuation methods -- Depending on the business model it might make more sense to build comps on other metrics that are unique to the business to understand where these metrics may go. e.g. ARPU for an ad model and compare it to Facebook, etc. 

Are you doing this independently or as part of a firm?

 

It’s for a case study for a VC firm.

Any insights on what kind of questions they would ask me in an interview? It’s an Ops/finance role in the firm

 

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