Are electric vehicles truly growing in popularity?
A friend of mine recently ordered the Tesla Model Y and is currently awaiting production of his vehicle to arrive in the weeks to come. I'm not sure if he's just trying to follow the Tesla bandwagon, but it didn't make financial sense at all. $650/month for the payment, plus $120/month for a parking space with a plug at his apartment complex and then whatever insurance is expected to be. The idea of not paying for gas seems to resonate the most for him, which I agree with, but more than $800/month to drive a car seems exorbitant when cars aren't investments. I'm also concerned the infrastructure is not yet developed enough to offer charge stations more efficiently and conveniently available. I can see myself eventually driving an EV, in some form at least, but i can't help but think current issues today stand out too much and therefore prevent me from making it my sole driving car.
I can't really figure out if electric cars are just in popularity because of Tesla. A glorified iPod/iPhone on wheels? Sometimes I think these people are the same ones who would camp outside of apple stores because the latest iPhone is the "best" and prior is too outdated. Other major automakers seem to slowly creep into this territory, but I can't really tell if those electric models they develop are getting enough momentum that Tesla supposedly has.
Curious to hear what you guys think.
Teslas are not considered “exorbitantly priced” (unless you have the Roadster). Even in SF where every other autist is a Tesla fanboy, most people with money are still driving non-Tesla gas guzzlers. I know a few people who are planning to go electric and they are not eyeing Teslas — they want the Taycan or are holding out for the electric GranTurismo, or at least the i4.
I think electric is going to be widely embraced but Tesla is not the only name in the game. Teslas are the new Prius and they are not luxuries — there are super chargers at the supermarket and there are a bunch of Uber drivers going around in Teslas. Maybe other cities are behind on the EV trend but they will pick up soon enough and what happened with gas vehicles will repeat — there will be lower (Leaf), mid (Tesla), and upper (Porsche, etc) tier options abound
I saw a $100,000 Land Rover the other day and I remember just scoffing--out loud--at how shitty that vehicle is. Slow, fuel inefficient, poor handling, its entertainment system will be outdated in about 18 months. I think Tesla, over time, is going to damage these luxury brands by making them look like dinosaurs.
Nah I don't think so, it depends on the person tbh. I like Tesla but honestly I'm also eyeing the BMW X5 40i or hybrid version of the X5. Great because they put performance first, luxury second, and it's a really large SUV, so it's comfy and roomy. My boys bash on me for not wanting to get the M sports package but I live in Brooklyn where I'll literally never need to go down 100mph consistently like I'm on a track. Also I'm biased but my boys and I also have all the tools needed to work on Beemers and know a good amount of them, so it's totally different than someone who wants a BMW cuz it's a BMW and has to worry about sending it to a mechanic every other month because they don't know how to take care of the car properly.
Tesla dominates the EV market. Taycans and GTs are not going to take up significant portion of market share as they aren’t feasible for majority of Americans. Tesla has a competitive advantage on supply chain logistics and infrastructure. The patents Tesla holds on batteries and EV technology are also extremely valuable and have implications far beyond being an automaker. Not saying this justifies current stock price and market cap but in America Tesla is dominant EV player.
Yes, Teslas will be the market leader because, like Priuses, they feature sound engineering and are fairly accessible. Porsche and Maserati and the like don’t dominate the current auto market either — what I was saying is that Teslas will not be on every prospective EV owner’s wishlist and are not some exclusive trophy. Maybe they’re cool now relative to other options but they’re not luxury vehicles and aren’t even marketed as such. $TSLA fanboys are just reaching
Tesla's are expensive af. They have a premium because of the name brand, I would say they're a Mercedes equivalent.
There's some other interesting players in the space- Porsche, Karma/ Fisker, and I recently came across a company called Canoo with an interesting business model.
I think the 3 is basically comparable to say a CLA/ A3/ 3 series type.
Roadster/S a little closer to the luxury/sport mainstream cars, except really just one model that you can spiff up performance, versus a wider range of models with different aesthetics, etc.
I think they did try to make the model 3 with minimum profit, but the others are for sure just trying to create more profit to invest in making the other cars, expanding factories, etc.
Elon laid out the plans for the company years ago, they seem to be following pretty much exactly.
This is the classic case of supply creating demand. EVs are gaining in popularity in China and Europe because there are a lot of options. In the U.S., you have very few options and relatively little supply. As a result, you don't have particularly penetrating EV sales numbers. In the next 5 years or so you'll have a lot more U.S. EV options (I'm personally suuuuper interested in the BMW i4 and the VW ID Buzz). The Tesla supercharger network and the third party networks are growing steadily (Tesla's network is massive, GM is installing 2,700 in the next 5 years in the continental U.S.). I think if you fast-forwarded to 2030 you'd be blown away at how different transportation looks. But over the next decade it will slowly transition around you.
Speaking to Tesla specifically, I'm sort of obsessed with Teslas not because of the environment or C02 emissions, but because they are engineering marvels. They aren't the best vehicles ever produced, but dollar for dollar, they are the best vehicles ever mass produced, from fuel efficiency to handling to software to autonomous tech to acceleration to sound system. At this moment in time, a Tesla Model 3 (now maybe the Model Y), for example, is, dollar for dollar, the best vehicle money can buy on planet Earth. It's not THE best vehicle on Earth, but a comparable vehicle would be considerably more expensive. A Porsche Taycan starts at around $115,000. A fully loaded Model 3 is around $55 - 57,000. A very well equipped Model 3 is around $47,000, which is a stupid number for the kind of vehicle you get.
So when people talk about Tesla being a great "value" brand, what they really mean is that if you were to buy a comparable vehicle, you'd have to spend a lot more money. Even then, Tesla's top vehicle, the Roadster, would embarrass other super cars that cost a lot more money (now, they just need to produce it).
What do you consider a comparable vehicle to the model 3, if you're subtly telling me the electric component is not relevant? I'm not totally clear on what you're saying in terms of value and the engineering marvel it is. I understand what you mean on a dollar for dollar cost basis when you consider that it is mass produced, but what about the quality control issues they've encountered and the reliability factor? The last couple of years haven't been good for them in terms of quality. I think they've improved since then, but i think that has hurt them considering how much people were paying for the model S and the production delays that occurred with the 3. People still consider quality and reliability as big factors when acquiring cars. they cost a lot of money and people don't want to deal with issues they have to fix when only after a couple of years.
A competing vehicle would be any sedan between $40 and $60,000, which is an endless list. Any competing vehicle will collapse in value the moment you drive it off the lot. Model 3s will barely depreciate. You can hardly even buy a used Model 3 because so few people want to get rid of them. The maintenance cost of an ICE sedan in this price range isn't so bad in the opening years when under warranty, but out of warranty those ICE vehicles are nightmarishly expensive. I've owned out of warranty Volvos and Audis and they are an obscene joke. There are charities that won't even accept donations of used European vehicles because of the annual cost of maintenance. Tesla has quality control issues, but Tesla will fix those issues for free. While the quality control issue is totally unacceptable, once they fix the issues customers tend to be extremely happy with the result.
In terms of performance, there are virtually no vehicles in this price range that can out race a Model 3 performance and most (not all) will get smoked by a Model 3 Long Range. Model 3 has excellent handling, though some BMWs probably still have the edge; Model 3 is better than most in its class. In terms of MPGe/fuel efficiency, it's around 130 miles for the Model 3, which is a full 100 miles better per equivalent gallon than pretty much every other ICE competitor. Model 3 has an incredible sound system and has (arguably) the best active safety features of any car on the road today. Model 3 outperforms its comparables in crash testing, too, I believe scoring the highest (or one of the highest) crash test ratings of all time. The Model 3 interior is pretty blah, but spend $1,000 to upgrade to all-white interior and it will take your breath away. Model 3 seats btw? Easily among the most comfortable seats on the road today (I turned in my Audi last year because the seats were horribly uncomfortable). Model 3 LR (the class we're discussing) is AWD, making it much more useful in many U.S. climates than competing RWD ICE sedans.
Add in the over-the-air improvements to the entertainment system and to performance as well as cool micro features (such as no need for a key, dog mode, remote access for car sharing, sentry mode, etc.) and it's just simply better than every car in its class. It really isn't even close.
I mean I will definitely prefer an EV as my daily for environment reasons, but for the weekends, I think something with a bit more character is more suitable.
Also really confused about whether I should short TESLA or not
not opposed to EVs, I just have a few questions. maybe someone here can help me out since I don't keep up with the space.
what's actually worse for the environment - keeping an old, fuel efficient (25-35mpg) car or buying a new EV (considering all of the pollution that goes into production of any car)? I'm talking about lifetime carbon footprint, not current emissions
talk to me more about batteries. I don't know enough to have an educated opinion on them, I had just heard that the processes necessary to mine the metals for batteries is terrible
if you charge your EV on a non-nuclear/solar/wind grid, how does that change your carbon footprint?
all of that being said, I'm not a devout environmentalist, my consciousness there is rooted in my love for surfing, so I tend to focus on air & water pollution and protecting natural lands more than MPG if you follow that. that said, I'd happily get an EV if my experience in road trips roughly mimics my experience with gas. until the day I can pull over most anywhere, charge up, and be done in a jiffy, I'm not a buyer. if I had a radius of a couple miles and that was all I travelled, it would absolutely make sense, but not for me.
sidebar - a part of me wonders if we would just stop conspicuous consumption the environment would be better off even with petroleum based vehicles. I wonder if the idea of constantly upgrading your car, even if it's lower emissions is actually counterproductive when you consider the harm that manufacturing does. idk, just a thought, I could be totally wrong
second sidebar - if I have to pay nearly $800/mo for a car, I'm leasing a Porsche
Best of both worlds
(Although you're not leasing that for $800/mo)
that thing is beautiful. if they had a cayman hybrid (idk, I like the 718 more than the 911 on looks alone, never driven) I'd do that. I cannot mentally get over the roar of an engine and something feels wrong about a 4 door Porsche.
thanks for sharing, that thing is beauuuuuuuuutiful
Keep your old car, buying a new car is definitely worse for the environment. Keep hitting the scrapyard to keep it going too. They're only better if you're already getting a new car.
Mining for the rare earth metals does suck, but again, it is just better than the alternative. I know ICE cars aren't what most oil drilling is for, but just one of the major oil spills we've seen has trashed the environment more than the mining (also biased as another surfer).
All the work that goes into getting the gas drilled, shipped, refined, and transported to you, not to mention the parts that need to be replaced more (EVs barely need brake changes due to the regenerative charging, don't need oil in the fuel mixture, way less moving parts, etc) still outweigh our current EVs. The EVs and their energy supply chains are still improving rapidly whereas ICE engines are mostly maxed out on efficiency.
Here's some great info: https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2019-tesla-impact-report.pdf
You are 100% correct that our consumerism and lack of long term thinking/care is the biggest problem and the difference between an ICE and EV is almost negligible if you're going to buy a new car every ten years anyway. Living close to work so you can bike in, even 2 days a week, would be orders of magnitude better for the environment than buying an EV over an ICE. Teslas are here because people are not opting to ride their bikes, and nobody really sees it happening as a next step from where we are as a society now.
EVs are just plain better than ICE cars in almost every single category, the last holdouts I hear these days are:
I appreciate you sharing, I learned something today!
I really like NIO's (Chinese EV maker's) battery swap system. You go to refuel at a station and they swap out your battery in 5 minutes. Tesla initially started doing that, but backed off it after a few years. They never really explained why they backed off the battery swap in favor of the supercharging network. Given enough time, I think battery swapping is the inevitable future of EVs.
Those things are not mutually exclusive. Clearly Tesla is driving a lot of the popularity, especially with the Model 3, but that doesn't mean electric cars overall aren't also growing in popularity.
Have you ever actually driven a Tesla? They are outrageously fun and quick to drive. You can not care one bit about the environment and still think it's cool.
"A glorified iPhone on wheels" is both reductive and also a massive compliment. iPhones are also cool.
If this doesn't get your blood pumping, that's fine - maybe you just don't like cars - but I'm not sure what to tell you.
The Taycan is fantastic. We can make fun of Tesla's myriad of oddities all we want - but you are correct, those things are fast and fun to drive. The instant pickup and torque is ridiculous when you aren't used to it.
Honestly Tesla's biggest issue, IMO, are the interiors. They're perfectly fine, but they aren't up to their price point. If you compare a Model S interior to a Mercedes E class you can tell.
I think you bring up fair points. i will say for the record that I live in the SF Bay Area where Teslas are dime a dozen. The model S, X, and 3 are at every corner every time i hit the road. I'm already seeing the Y make more appearances. i see crowded charging stations all the time, see them in accidents, cutoff by them etc.
What i don't get is why back in March of 2016, when the model 3 debuted, people were extremely willing to put a $1000 deposit down for a car that wasn't set to deliver for i think more than a year that time? You couldn't even test drive it. And in the end its a car. Cars are depreciating assets that won't return anything, despite the technology and performance of Tesla cars. The fact that it runs on electricity seems to be the sole "unarguable" reason for why people buy it.
I will say I have not driven one personally, and i don't doubt what people are saying about it. I'd certainly like to drive one. I mean it is a fantastic performing car, but i don't understand the whole business model Musk has behind it. The automotive industry has huge barriers to entry, Costs of materials, labor, research and market regulations are huge, and it seems like Musk wanted to build a car and realized that for what kind of tax credits he could get from the government, building those cars seemed to do it. Other experienced automakers know that it costs way more time, energy and money to build fleets of electric vehicles even though they have large r&d reserves that could help them innovate it. Porsche certainly built a sexy EV machine, but what does it cost for the consumer? Its a hefty price just to get that EV component, while they still sell more inexpensive ICE models.
Define "popular"? I just checked and EVs have roughly 2% share of the market. But they've grown 80% YoY so I guess they are growing in popularity.
I think we're probably one quantum leap in battery tech away from widespread penetration, provided we can also get some decent charging infrastructure. As of now they seem to be mainly 2nd cars in wealthier households.
I'm an electric car enthusiast. Specifically within the U.S. market, I would argue that lack of supply and lack of vehicle diversity is holding back electric car sales. At least in theory, these issues will be resolved in the coming few years.
According to my survey, there are 15 available EVs on sale in the U.S., which seems to be a respectable number--that's a lot of selection. But that's only on paper. Only four of those vehicles are available in mass quantities at relatively affordable pricing--Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model Y, and in the case of Teslas, you are still waiting 3-6+ weeks upon order for delivery. The Leaf is an ugly, slow vehicle with poor handling and the Bolt is hideous (it's a compliance vehicle). The other affordable models--Hyundai Kona and Ioniq, Kia Niro, Mini SE Electric--are only available in very limited quantities. All the rest of the available EVs are largely unaffordable to the upper middle class and below (e.g. Porsche Taycan, Audi e-tron, Jaguar i-Pace). The Polestar 2 is about to be delivered to the U.S. market, so that's a nice addition.
In 2021, however, we are expected to see 19 new models come onto the market (more than doubling the current line-up), of which 9 will at least be attainable by the upper middle class and below. In 2022, you'll have another 4-10 models introduced, putting you in around 40 available EV models.
It's going to be a slow adoption process--it definitely will not be overnight. But over the next decade or so, you'll see a total shift in the market.
Tesla is updating Roadster design, 0-60 mph in mind-boggling 1.1 sec with SpaceX package
https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2021/05/20/tesla-roadster-desi…
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