Coinstar Comparables?
Netfix
NCR
What else?
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Netflix? Hell no. They're a totally different type of company - no kiosks, valuation is based much more on their transition to a streaming model. Their multiple is through the roof, for reasons that don't really apply to Coinstar/RedBox.
NCR isn't really a great comp either, since they've got their fingers in all kinds of ATM manufacturing, payment terminals, point-of-sale, etc. They're making the hardware and selling it to Coinstar, Coinstar is operating and servicing a network of installed machines in grocery stores. The tiny segment of NCR that makes the Coinstar machines is dwarfed by the rest of NCR.
Having a hard time coming up with good comparables, but if you came in to my office with those two I'd tell you to go back and think a little harder.
I was just going to say Netflix is def a no.
This is less than helpful though since I don't have a great comparable off the top of my head here. I am almost thinking of things more vending machine oriented for example maybe a kiosk that does foreign exchange for a percentage (those may not exist, I'm just throwing it out there).
Perhaps independent ATM companies who do not manufacture ATMs but simply collect the fees on ATMs they own. Just an idea, sorry I can't be of more help on this one.
redbox, their dvd unit is about 80% of their revenue.
npc operates 7000 dvd kiosks under the blockbuster name
anyway, im thinking of shorting cstr since I see physical content becoming obsolete. Thoughts?
I think another reason to short CSTR is just the fact that some banks are giving their service away for free to non-account holders i.e. commerce bank
Personally, I think comparables would not be very relevant in this case
If anything, I would strip away the DVD/vending portion of competitors (if info available/possible) and use that as a gutcheck for fundamental analysis, which in this case, is very relevant (growth dependent to adding new kiosks, "turnover", etc...)
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