COVID outbreak in a club, in Korea - Let this be a lesson to you kids

New COVID outbreak in a Korean Club

Same old story. Bunch of 20 something year-olds got stupid thinking they won't get sick, went to a club, and there goes mass infection. Boom. Now, the bars and clubs are forced to shut down over there.

And this happened in Korea, place so close to China yet only has 10,000-ish cases. Seriously, don't be dumb. It's gonna be a short-lived reopening when a mass infection like this happens because bunch of people decided to get stupid and careless.

Where a freaking mask. Keep social distancing. Wash your hands. Don't get people sick.

Comments (63)

May 10, 2020

this virus broke many plans.

  • Intern in IB-M&A
May 10, 2020

Meanwhile some of the states are trying to reopen with the curve looking the way it does now.

May 10, 2020

Alternatively, we could all recognize that this virus is incredibly mild in the vast majority of the population and that resources should be targeted at protecting the elderly, not halting normal life indefinitely.

From the center for evidenced based medicine, the likely true infection fatality rate is between .1%-.41%

Further, the risk ratio's for various age brackets are truly steep

Category Risk ratio

Age 30-39 0.06

Age 40-49 0.14

Age 50-59 0.31

Age 60-69 (Reference) 1.00

Age 70-79 2.95

Age 80-89 4.47

Age 90+ 4.83

Put together this should suggest a very different strategy then enduring lockdown, no?

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case...

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May 11, 2020

Hands down one of the most inaccurate comments I've ever seen. Based on the current case number of ~4.2M and the current deaths of 284K the global fatality rate is 6.7% and in the US its about 5.7%. So not that mild. Yes, the disease impacts the elderly the most. But have you heard of population age distributions? the 18-44 year bracket accounts for 36% of the US population, whilst the 65+ is only 13%. Even if the fatality rate in the 18-44 bracket was 1%, that still mathematically comes out to over 1M dead. The whole point of widespread restrictions is that you can stop it once and for all until either every that has it has recovered or is dead.

No one is planning to halt normal life indefinitely, but outbreaks like this Korean one could happen. If you lift all restrictions now, things could be ok for a few months and then we have another 2-3 month lockdown. And the cycle repeats. What impact do you think something like this over 2-3 years could have? It would be much more catastrophic than grinding everything to a firm halt for 5-6 months to ensure things can truly go back to normal. If anything, the more people get re-infected the higher the chances of viral mutations. This thing could be become more infectious or more deadly. As the OP said, just stay indoors and be sensible

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Most Helpful
May 11, 2020

Hold on aren't the case numbers leaving out masses of people who are asymptomatic and/or don't get tested?

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May 11, 2020

It appears as if the numbers you are using are based just upon confirmed cases. In the last two months, through anti body surveys of the population, it has become clear that the spread of this illness in the US and abroad is significantly more widespread, but therefore significantly less dangerous.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antibody-s...
http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/m...
These results have occurred over and over again and point to a population IFR around .1%-.41% as Oxfords Center for Evidenced Based medicine points to above.

Further, I posted the age bracket distributions above for fatalities not cases. If you have different age fatality breakdowns could you please post your source like I have? The implication of the relative risk from CEBM and the order of magnitude lower infection fatality rate is that this may only kill one out of every ten thousand people under 40, not the doomsday you're painting. If its a mild illness for the young, then who cares if they make up a sizable chunk of cases?

Genuinely want to know if either A) You were not aware of this fact or B) If there is something wrong in my understanding. I feel like I've been taking crazy pills every since this information has been coming out in studies

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May 11, 2020

I agree but I am just not sure about how severe the consequences are for a person in good health. No one here has ever experienced a pandemic of this magnitude. The last one was probably the Spanish Flue in 1918. I do not have any definitive answers as to how to deal with the current pandemic. All I can do is listen to heath experts and follow their guidance.

The economies need to start opening up slowly because the financial consequences of the shut downs have been severe and could get worse. My guess is that substantial portion of people who lost their jobs may never get them back. Recently, my house cleaner reached out to inquire about our view on getting our house cleaned. His business is probably suffering during this pandemic unless he managed to support from the government.

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May 11, 2020

Why do you think older people get sick in the first place? They either get it from young people or they get it from other old people. I'd say that the transfer from old to old is more likely people often tend to interact more with people within their age range.

It's virtually impossible to stop physical interactions btw young people and old people. And imagine what these dumb and young people who go out carelessly and don't adhere to basic COVID safety measures would do.

They probably wouldn't have enough brainpower to think that they should not be around older people. And if people continue to be so careless, how can we ever reopen? They're just gonna think it's okay to go back to normal life and ignore all the safety measures.

If we ever wanted to reopen, it starts from doing our civil duties and trying our best not to get sick or others sick.

Finance Data Science

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May 11, 2020

Seems like it would be meaningfully more reasonable to prevent the young from interacting with the elderly then, you know, shutting down the world economy and changing basic human nature of communal interaction.

Obviously, even under the world I believe the data paints, we all have to be more aware of our interactions with the vulnerable and our hygiene for the immediate future. This doesn't mean a healthy 20 or 30 something should fear going to a bar or interacting in groups. Let me know if you disagree with the data or the implications I'm drawing from it.

May 11, 2020

Not trying to be an dick, I just don't understand how the new info squares with what seems to be the enduring narrative in people's mind

The swiss are ending there lockdown almost a month earlier then expected, opening restaurants today.... are they just unquestioning dum dums?

https://www.thelocal.ch/20200429/bars-restaurants-...

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May 11, 2020

"Reopen everything now" vs. "Stay confined for 18+ months" was, and has always been, a false choice.

The plan from the beginning was to quarantine for an amount of time necessary to flatten the curve - i.e. not overwhelm the hospital system - and allow governments the necessary amount of time to appropriately respond to the crisis by rapidly increasing production of PPE, coordinating measures and policies that would guide reopening in the interest of public safety, manufacture extensive testing capabilities, create and implement a vast contact tracing framework, and stabilize the economy.

You can see the success of this in various countries throughout the world, including South Korea, which the OP brought up. South Korea is a particularly good comparison because the first cases of COVID-19 were reported in the United States and South Korea on the same day. In the same mount of time that they have had 10,909 cases and 256 deaths, America has had 1.37M cases and 80,602.

This is a result of the American government's failure to create enough tests, the refusal of responsibility of managing the crisis by the White House resulting in a disjointed state by state response, essentially zero contact tracing ability or framework, a national PPE shortage, a terrible small business loan effort, blatant selfishness among Americans disregarding shelter in place orders, and rampant intentional disinformation by various outlets. Then, after a month or two, nail salons and massage parlors suddenly became a free for all as armed rednecks stage astroturfed protests in state houses throughout the country.

South Korea, and New Zealand, and Hong Kong, and Switzerland, and various other countries can safely transition to a more open state because they had adequate testing, a coordinated and science-based response, and wide-spread contact tracing. Their governments did the right thing, their communities did the right thing, and now their people can far more safely resume almost normal lives. There will certainly be restrictions in place and oddities remaining until a vaccine is found, and the virus will continue to spread in events like the OP posted, but mass shutdowns will not be required to keep it under control until a cure is discovered.

Here in America, many of our leaders decided essentially that enough time had simply passed and that the doors should be thrown open, even without the necessary steps being put in place beforehand. We still do not have contact tracing. We still do not have enough PPE. We just now have enough tests - but that depends on what state you live in. We have 30MM+ people newly unemployed.

It is absolutely essential to remember that it did not have to be this bad. COVID-19 is a worldwide problem that would have been incredibly difficult regardless of who was in charge, but American leadership has not only failed the country, but has also embarrassed the country and diminished our reputation irreparably on the world stage. No one has looked to America for guidance during this crisis. No one.

Meanwhile, the goal has always been to safely reopen. We as a country just decided to ignore the "safely" part of that.

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May 11, 2020

I can agree that two months ago that given our lack of information that a shutdown was a very defensible position. While I personally lean conservative, I also can agree that we didn't use the shutdown effectively and came to this party far less prepared then we should have been.

However, the new data tells us, given how widespread and what we understand about this illness mortality, it no longer makes sense to restrict the general population in meaningful ways. Targeted protection of nursing homes, programs to allow for those with large comorbidities to stay home, and get everyone else out slowly to life.

Is this an unreasonable take?

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  • Intern in 
May 11, 2020

Strong-willed and patriotic people don't need to wear a face mask and they won't catch the virus. Just look at the white house. the people who don't wear face masks (Pence, Trump) are the least likely to catch the virus. All their assistants and drivers caught the virus but Trump and Pence are just healthy as always. Pence visited hospitals without a face mask. If important. trustworthy, intelligent, and prestigious politician like Pence won't wear one, that says a lot and we should all listen!

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May 11, 2020

I legitimately can't tell if this is a parody or not.

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May 11, 2020

something like this could really unite the country. people can appreciate the sarcasm, and idiots who think it's true will like it because they believe it literally.

SATIRE 2020

May 11, 2020

Hold on there. Pence is probably doing it intentionally and out of good will.

Guy must love Jesus so much that he wants to send as many people as possible to heaven. What a saint.

Finance Data Science

May 11, 2020

idgaf

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May 11, 2020
neink:

idgaf

same bro, same. every covid discussion I've seen (not just here, twitter, IG, reddit, everywhere):

"THIS IS THE TRUTH, YOURE WRONG

NO THIS IS THE TRUTH, YOURE WRONG

STAY HOME

NO FUCK THAT LETS GO OUT"

chill out everyone, get some sweat therapy in (something literally everyone can do), nobody knows for sure, so take a dose of humility. if you spend all your time worried about the actions of others, you're wasting time you could be use to better yourself

May 11, 2020

Yup. I intentionally refrained from making any prediction on the topic based on the fact that... I don't know. The only other certainty I have is that... you don't know either. Nobody knows.

I did get annoyed that my laptop broke. That made my days significantly more boring for a few weeks.

May 11, 2020

...

May 11, 2020

Im curious: who is saying people are seeing "long term" damage when at most, this has been around for 6 months?

Not disputing the damage exists, just curious who's saying half a year is long term

May 11, 2020

...

May 11, 2020

The tldr of this post is that Americans, you all cannot go out to clubs or bars for a while or you will force everyone to stay at home again.

I have left this site peacefully. The >1.5x MS / SB ratio is interesting. Once my computer updates and removes me from Incognito, I will be washed away like all humans eventually. I don't know when that will happen.

May 11, 2020
Comment
May 12, 2020