Cuts Across Banks in Houston

With the huge impact that oil and gas has taken on due to corona, I can only imagine that there are going to be cuts to the amount of SA 2021 interns that will be hired. Any thoughts on how much the BBs and EBs will reduce hiring by?

 

I'm sorry but no.

Do you really think a bank would cut their pipeline of future revenue generating MDs to retain their Zoom-interns?

Yes, banks choose to cut a bottom-bucket VP instead of cutting 5 analysts, but that is based on current employees at the firm. The bank likely has too many analysts vs. current deal flow, but they will all be gone in a year and go to PE to help maintain relationships.

But do you think Simmons is going to bring in an oversized 2021 analyst class while firing Associates/VPs? They will not willingly sign an oversized class out of good will to the interns. Remember a summer internship is a 10 week interview, and the number of spots just got cut.

 

Can anyone comment on the return offer rate this summer at EBs (EVR/LAZ/TPH)?

 

Hot Take: UBS, Bank of America, and Greenhill will shutdown their Houston IB office in the next year.

DB already made the choice to shutdown in an upmarket. Now that it could be until 2023 before we see U.S. production reach its current levels, the Houston IB market will be significantly reduced and the heard needs to be thinned.

Beyond the oil majors, the rest of U.S. O&G is worth less than Home Depot. How can these banks justify having a Houston office for so few deal fees? In finance terms, Houston has the lowest EV/Banker multiple, by far.

 

They have restructuring and are turning away mandates because they have run out of capacity. Obviously, its hard to say how the M&A side will perform long term, but these companies will make money as the shale industry dies.

 

4-6 on average. A handful are in the 8-12 range (Citi, maybe Evercore. CS used to hire big classes not sure if that’s the case anymore).

 

Varies. Bigger shops like Citi and Evercore are ~12 from what I've heard. Other "top" shops are closer to 6-8. Smaller offices like MS are closer to 4.

 

Given the way things are going, I'd be hard pressed to see either of those groups doing well for themselves in the next year or two unless the macro picture changes very quickly. Citi is just way too big (manpower-wise) at the moment, I don't think that will be sustainable if things stay the same. Don't get me wrong, I don't see them shuttering or anything like that but I'd imagine that growth opportunities for junior bankers will be limited and that class sizes will have to shrink going forward. MS is smaller so they could probably keep the lights on by getting on one or two big mandates a year.

Agree with the poster above referencing the shops with restructuring arms as having a lot on their plates. If you are a student going into summer or FT recruiting in the next 6 months, those are the shops that I would be targeting if deal flow is your priority.

 

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