In a recession, hiring would slow down and layoffs would increase. With doomsdayers and several reputed media outlets (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-02/all-the-reasons-to-fret-about-the-global-economy-in-charts) predicting a recession, would the hiring of bankers slow down ? Worst still, will the existing industry face a slew of layoffs ?
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Primarily senior bankers would get axed, I think analysts would be relatively safer as the type of work they do isn't really affected.
VP and up are at risk - analyst turnover is high enough on its own that they can just wait around for enough people to leave and not hire as many replacements.
I've heard VPs get axed first, then directors, then associates, then analysts. It's a cost-to-value thing.
Senior bankers are generally more at risk (especially VP's since they are expensive and don't bring in revenue yet), but analyst/associate offers can get pulled before your start date. Even once you start it's not like you're automatically safe. I know a guy who joined BofA (pre Merrill merger) and he saw a handful of junior bankers laid off soon after he started. A major consideration is what group you're in. The FIG group at MS had their highest revenue year ever in the aftermath of 2008. Obviously RX groups and folks with distressed M&A skillsets would be super busy in a recession as well.
Another other major consideration is if anyone will go to bat for you. If you're a top performer your bank will find a spot for you, even in the tough times. If your performance places you at the bottom of your class and things get tough, you should probably be worried.
From people who I've talked to who are older and were in banking during the crisis, yes, order is generally from seniority due to analysts being relatively cheap. But, some offers were still rescinded and analysts definitely did get axed still.
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