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April 30, 2024
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LFIN September puts
SVXY
Beautiful
Bet you're wearing Patagucci and Deal Sleds
AAPL
Probably a CMBS WAC IO. Or maybe a portfolio mix with SFER, FIZZ, and SVXY.
ZCK19
BKNG
LEAP Puts on $NVDA. It's priced as an AI/Self-Driving/Machine Learning stock yet they bring in revenue for making video-gaming cards for PC gamers.
I'm under the impression that they are the leading hardware provider for AI/Machine Learning. If you don't believe it to be them, who do you think is the giant in AI hardware?
They are definitely the leading AI chip company right now. The question is will then be in 2-5 years. I have no clue. 95% of hardware companies crash and burn (even after great growth. Intel crash 85% from their 2000 highs and still have no regained that price and they dominated their industry. Cisco did something similar as a load of alumni decided to put up their own shingle and compete.
Blackberry crashed and never recovered. Chipmakers as a whole Love to crash for years then go on huge runs. The only hardware company to avoid crashing in in the last 20 years was Apple but they transitioned to a platform/luxury brand.
Nvda does have some issues on how much cryptos have loaded up their profits. This quarter may be fine but with cryptos down 65% I would expect a hiccup the next few quarters. Intel makes a lot more money than NVDA. If AI is real and big I would expect Intel to boost their r and d in that space to compete longer term.
I guess my point is Nvda has a nice lead right now and perhaps 18-30 months ahead of the competition but longer term success will bring competition and some very well funded competition.
I would be nervous owning Nvda now. I also question if the Nvda guys are geniuses. 2 years ago they sold convertible bonds that ended up costing them 8 billion (would be 20 billion now). Their leadership didn’t even see the potential in their chips a few years ago that they thought it was prudent to save 50 bps on a bond deal while risking massive dilution.
Not sure if the ride is over but Square/Salesforce have been great to me.
BRK or AAPL because they're both rich in cash
RICK
GLD
VRX
TVIX
this would be a great buzzfeed quiz
GS for the preftige obviously... or BX
Mezzanine, I want to get the best of both worlds
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