What's That Smell?
"When I was in England, I experimented with marijuana a time or two, and I didn't like it... and didn't inhale, and never tried it again." - Bill Clinton
That, my friends, is the smell of Musk smoking my September calls.
At the time, all of the shorts I spoke with assumed nothing would go right with Tesla, using emotionally charged language and ideological arguments to justify their position:
- Musk is a welfare queen! That's not capitalism!
- Tesla will never hit growth targets! Musk is a charlatan!
- Disagree? You don't understand finance, moron!
The shorts missed the forest for the trees, and hubris cost them dearly.
Today, all of the longs assume everything will go right with Tesla, using emotionally charged language and ideological arguments to justify their position:
- Musk is changing the world! This is bigger than capitalism!
- Who cares if Tesla misses targets? Musk is a visionary!
- Disagree? You're spreading FUD, liar!
The longs neglected due diligence and it's costing them dearly.
The Great Man Theory
"In reading the lives of great men, I found that the first victory they won was over themselves... self-discipline with all of them case first." - Harry Truman
I'll say this for Elon: dude does not give a fuck.
I can't lie, I admire the man and want him to succeed. There is a part of me that hates "the system," and I can't help but support people brave enough to take it on...
But calling someone out as a paedophile on Twitter? Even if it were true Musk should not have said it.
Smoking weed on the Joe Rogan podcast? I watched the podcast live and could not believe he would blaze up live on camera.
He might be the head of a $50bb company, but he sure doesn't act like it.
Public facing CEO's need to have control of their emotions...
"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." - Jesse Livermore
But I'm the last one who should be talking!
I had a 10x gain less than 3 weeks after buying my options which, according to my back of the envelope math, was my expected value.
Unfortunately, I got greedy and almost all of my options expired worthless.
My last set of contracts are good until Jan18 and at this point, barring a miracle, I will have lost 100% of the capital I put up for this trade... and truthfully, even if the January calls payoff, it will have been luck.
This was a very expensive (and public!) lesson on greed and emotional control.
I hope you, dear reader, can learn from my mistake so you can avoid your own.