i was talking to a friend of mine who works for a TOP private equity firm in new york, and he said his boss, who's a principal with the firm, still rents on east 29th street. given the fact that this guy makes a ton of money but still rents, i guess it shows how hard it is to buy a decent condo in manhattan these days.
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it's the affordability - more likely convenience.
Still, I do agree that real estate in NY is ready to pop.
I highly doubt the NYC bubble will burst. Manhattan will always have demand. Right now the condo market in NY is skyrocketing due to the cheap dollar. Foreign investors are just eating it up!
History never repeats itself, but it frequently rhymes.
Might be worth reading up on the last major foreign investment-lead NYC real estate boom during the late 1980's.
Shoulda snapped up some prime units in union square for what, 100K? I wish...
Can you show some data to back that up? I've been closely watching the condo market for about 2 years waiting to buy and the inventory in Manhattan has gone up about 10-fold and I'm finding I can afford a lot more condo than 2 years ago. So show me the data that backs up that information.
Either you sling crack rock or you got a wicked jump shot
I'm certainly not a real estate expert, but I do recall seeing figures for Manhattan homes and apartments being up YOY for Q4 '07 and Q1 '08. I think the majority of the increases were mix driven (e.g., Q4'07 apt. pricing up ~15% even though unit volumes were only up ~3%) and simply skewed by sales of the most expensive units. That being said, I've got to think growing inventories will start to have a real impact on the market, even though it may be somewhat limited to the lower end of the price spectrum.
good one.
He's not renting b/c he can't afford to buy. As John Mack said, convenience is surely a significant factor.
i see your point, but there are very few desirable rental buildings in manhattan that are on par with luxury condos or exclusive co-ops.
I had dinner w/a hf manager last week and he was talking about how he should just sell his condo and just rent. I mean sure they can afford it but these guys are thinking about the bottom line ultimately. Even if housing in manhattan stays flat - you are still bleeding ridiculous cash in terms of interest, inflation, and common charges. That really defeats the purpose of buying in the first place.
How about Chicago? I wonder if its hard to buy a decent condo in Chicago these days.
I also wonder how the nightlife is in Chicago vs. NYC.
http://www.google.com/search?q=jjc1122+nyc&btnG=Search
Hmm.
Don't forget that 90%+ of the closings that happened Q1 are from deals that occurred a year ago...foreign investment might prop stuff up but the Eurozone will follow suit pretty soon esp as the dollar strengthens. Like I said, the only thing that matters is growth, if there's no growth, you're just getting killed buying.
While it's true foreign investment is keeping the NY real estate market afloat, that's just it - it's the only thing keeping the real estate market afloat right now. The NY market has gotten so overheated as of late it's reaching unsustainability. The price of living in Manhattan is pushing more and more people out of the city.
Also, I'd just like to point out that just because one principle at one private equity fund chooses to rent over buy doesn't identify any significant trend. One data point does not make a line.
I know plenty of associates in banking who are married, with expectations of starting a family, that chose to buy at that point.
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