https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/trump-interview-w…
Think everyone should read the interview transcript. I'm not sure how anyone can be against Trump at this point. He clearly has the country's best interests at heart. He's not nearly as draconian on immigration / DACA as people paint him to be - willing to negotiate and find a center ground.
In my opinion, the biggest upside of the Trump presidency thus far has been a systemic shift in confidence. He may not be the smartest guy in the room, but he's the guy who will hold his ground against anyone and fight the hardest for what he believes. In turn, this confidence cascades down to people who observe him and surround him, and it's domino effect which instills everyone with confidence.
The economy is booming, we did tax reform, and regulations are being scaled back. I don't know why anyone would be anti-trump at this point, unless you're anti- American exceptionalism.
He’s a great President, but we live in a world of hyper sensitive people.
He’s pushing America’s Interest finally. Renegotiating stale trade deals, finally reduced the corporate tax rate, reduced regulations, etc. but he says things in a blunt way and people get salty.
Oh well. Republicans believed in the birther bullshit and Dems believe in the Russia comedy. People will believe what they want.
Something is severely wrong with you.
What is that? Understanding of basic law? Preferring that my tax dollars go to help people that are actual Americans?
Go try and illegally immigrate anywhere else in the world and see what happens.
Economically, the U.S. has been steadily improving for years. It's just that people didn't care about that reality for political purposes, now all of a sudden America is booming. He hasn't even been President long enough for his policies to show actual economic effect. I, for one, thought he would derail the economic train with the trade policies he espoused during his campaign, thankfully he's done almost nothing on that front (heavy tarrifs on china, withdrawing from NAFTA etc.). I am concerned about the deficit, something Republicans don't give a shit about all of a sudden.
As for DACA, based on his leaked proposal, he is just as draconian on immigration as thought. He wants to exchange DACA citizenship for a legal migration plan that would lead to the lowest levels of legal migration since the 1920s, according to the Washington Post. All of a sudden families wouldn't be able to sponsor their adult children/ other family members in order for them to get green cards. This comprises the majority of legal migration into this country. Acording to the leaked proposal, he is dangling DACA citizenship in exchange for changing immigration policy in a way that would decrease legal immigration dramatically. It's smoke and mirrors. Now you may be for this, but don't say that he's "less draconian" than we thought. That's incorrect. Of course, this is assuming the leaked proposal mirrors what they'll actually put forth to congress.
As for @TNA" your "great President" was one of the biggest proponents of the "birther bullshit". You comparing that nonsense to an actual investigation, with actual charges, where Trump's son has been caught lying on multiple ocassions and associates have conveniently forgot to disclose Russian contacts on security documents is amazing. We have a real email where Don Jr. discusses meeting with an individual he thought to be related to the Russian government in order to get dirt on the opposing candidate. You may think the story has been blown out of proportion but to compare it to birtherism is ridiculous.
Obama inherited a terrible mess, no doubt, but his policies raised the anxiety of business owners and corporations due to onerous regulations (i.e., Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, EPA regulations, etc.) and the policy uncertainty rising out of that. During the Obama administration, the government issued more than 600 major regulations that cost $700 billion over the 8 years of Obama's presidency. Such a burden makes it difficult for businesses to confidently make investments and plan for the future. Also, Obama's stimulus did not cut the corporate or marginal tax rates, even though that would have been very helpful during the recession. Rather, the "tax cut" portion of the stimulus simply expanded existing credits and deductions.
As for legal immigration, the proposal as outlined did call for the elimination of chain migration for non-immediate family (immediate being defined as spouses and children), BUT there is a huge caveat: the applicants on the waitlist would be let in, a number amounting to 4 million over the course of 20 years. So we don't yet know what the precise quantitative impact on legal immigration will be, but let's say that the reduction is 50%. What exactly is wrong with that, assuming that we transition into a merit based system? We can have a policy discussion on the optimal immigration level and process, but the Left is not simply saying that they disagree with the policy. They are arguing hysterically that ANY reduction in legal immigration is tantamount to racism, xenophobia, and is indicative of white supremacy. Now I'm not saying that is your position, as I'm making a broader point here about the Left's rhetoric on immigration. However, it does underscore the fact that a sovereign nation with sovereign borders has the fundamental right to determine who gets in, how many, and the criteria by which they are selected. Ultimately, our immigration policy should first and foremost benefit the Americans and legal residents. Even if this plan were to be implemented, it would allow talented people from all countries of origin and ethnic backgrounds, to get in. There is ZERO racial filtering or favoritism to white people in this proposal.
If the Democrats reject this proposal, that will confirm once and for all how extreme they are on immigration. In return for path to citizenship for roughly 1.8 million illegal aliens, they are unwilling to accept increased border security, faster deportations, and a reform to our legal immigration system. In short, they would be unsatisfied with anything but total amnesty and citizenship for ALL illegal aliens and virtual open borders. Unbelievable.
Thank you for actually addressing my points rather than making some non-sensical, pointless, no value-add, comments like "liberals are the sheep or consumer and business confidence are real things".
1.) I agree that business confidence and economic confidence are up under the Trump presidency, my point is we need to see what that translates to before celebrating. As I mentioned down below, tax cuts (which I agreed with) are nice if they ACTUALLY lead to capex and wage growth. Same with repatriation. But last time we did repatriation under GWB companies just spent the $ on m&a/ buybacks. The fact of the matter is wage growth has been stagnant since the 70s and no administration has been able to make reasonable progress in solving that issue. Let's let the economic story play out before singing Trump's praises, especially when the effects of his policies (beyond the stock market which is just an indicator of capital confidence and not labor confidence) can't possibly be discerned yet. Especially when it's still unclear what he wants to do with NAFTA and othet trade agreements.
2.) We have disagreements on immigration that won't be resolved on this thread. Point taken on the existing applications, I was simply responding to OP that Trump is still very draconian on immigration, perhaps he's not a total extremist like he campaigned to be but he is still attempting to shift this countries' immigration policy further right than any modern President ever has. Understand that we can discuss Trump's racism and xenophobia and his actual policies separately, this is a policy discussion though so let's leave it at that.
Yes, of course it's true that the economy has been "steadily improving" for years. That's what economies invariably do after recessions (hence the name "recoveries"). The issue that you so conveniently gloss over is that that improvement was the slowest ever recorded. In other words, Obama's recovery was the weakest on record, even though he had unprecedented support from the central bank and increased the debt more than all other presidents combined.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2016/07/31/is-obamacare-blam…
The economy is taking off now because of Trump's pro growth policies. The market began growing at an accelerated rate precisely when Trump was elected. See below:
Do you notice the change in slope right on election day? Those stock market gains have already resulted in real economic gains and in improvements in labor market conditions.
The average quarterly growth rate in 2016: 1.85% The average quarterly growth rate in 2017: 2.5% (with the last 2 quarters 3%+ growth)
And this is before the tax cuts have even gone into effect. This is driven purely off of the expected growth associated with the tax cuts..
So as usual you lie and gloss over key issues and then jump right into your dogma. Something about Trump's proposal to naturalize 1.8M illegal immigrants being racist and talk of the birther conspiracy from 2011.
1.) Stock market gains are not necessarily indicative of economic gains, quarterly growth in the 1st year of Trump probably has nothing to do with his economic policies, as it's unlikely his policies showed an immediate effect (this should be fuckin obvious yet I have to repeat it)
2.) What are you talking about? You come with these garbage shit posts, it's becoming tiring. I never said anything about racism, Trump being racist, or his immigration policy being racist. I replied to Dances With Newfoundland that this is a policy discussion and should remain that way. I wasn't the one who brought up the birther conspiracy either.
In sumation, fuck off. You're quickly devolving into a troll that shouldn't be responded to.
It's really easy to feel good in this economic environment. Who doesn't like access to credit, a little build in the good ole nest egg, and a decent paying job? I think people overestimate how good a president is in good times and how bad one is in bad times. Remember, Reagan entered into his presidency headed into a recession and still turned economic conditions around. Trump had all green signals entering into his presidency. In fact, talk now is what tools are available, since tax reform is already passed, once the inevitable recession strikes.
The deficit is going to explode and we haven't even started talking about how to pay for much needed infrastructure improvements. And no, private investments aren't going to pay for non-revenue generating roads and bridges and sewage systems etc.
Green light? Fed was raising rates and QE was done. The market was fine, but the economy was papered over.
Cutting 1000 bps off the Corp tax rate, incentivizing investment and reducing regulation are things that fuel job growth, capex, repatriation.
And if things economically implode, it will be because of 8 years of unprecedented fed action and doubling the national debt. Oh and people complaining about the tax cut seem to ignore the costs associated with shitty Obamacare, which did nothing to bend the cost curve down.
Things were going to retract either way, I think that's the conventional wisdom. But an implosion comes after a jump in economic activity. 8 years, according to the conventional standard, is about 4x as long as a normal cycle. But, there have been little to no bubbles to speak of during this time, as well. That can probably be credited to the slow growth policies of the Obama administration, which might be viewed as too slow, and a lot of people seemed to be hurting due to low wage growth, etc.
But I think we can agree that the period of slow growth has ended. Record breaking results such as with tech companies and bank stocks during the last 6 months of 2017 all came as a result of some Obama administration economic policies. And yes, I think we're officially at an inflection point where we're now pass what Obama has done and moving into where Trump is. I'd be interested to see how well the economy handles now that the transition looks to be complete.
Investment spending needs to come with higher wage growth, else it'll lead to a disoriented market, or high inflation. In times like these, markets tend to pocket investment returns, poring into high return markets and creating bubbles. Slow growth may have led to slow investment spending and slow wage growth, but that's probably the reason no real bubbles formed in the past 8 years.
Tax cuts could be dramatically bad. But I think being overly worried about having no tools in a recession is a bad way to think. Tax cuts will always have a directly negative effect on the deficit, so cutting taxes while entering into a recession only worsen debt burdens. Cutting taxes now was probably the wise thing to do, as the booming economy gives some head room to recover some of the tax losses through growth. But the economic boom should also lead to much higher rates than the ones we're seeing now. That inflation that I think can kick in from higher investment spending will do it. The recession will be put off and hopefully more tools will be available to address that at the right time.
All of this is to say that I think through Ben Bernanke, Obama used the tools at his disposal and Trump looks to be doing the same, using the past to guide the future. The economic considerations seem to be quite grounded in historical precedent on both fronts. Cut interest rates and relieve debt during a severe long-term debt cycle, and don't cut taxes while heading into a recession.
Why was the Fed raising rates? Because the economy was already steadily improving. You argue against yourself in your first sentence.
Agreed regarding the corp tax rate, but we have yet to see the effect of that. The economy grew at 3% Q12017-Q32017. Ironically, the newly released numbers for Q42017 show growth at 2.6%, below economists expectations. It has yet to be seen whether this new rate will lead to real capex spending or a bunch of M&A and stock buy backs. Overall, I think the cut was necessary, although a commensurate cut in spending elsewhere would've been nice.
Recessions happen for various and often unforseeable reasons, let's not try and be prophets. Healthcare needs to be addressed in a real way in this country, I have yet to see anything from either party that brings the cost curve down. I have seen studies that show Obamacare slowed the cost growth rate while covering more people though.
Trump has the potential to be a great president, but isn't there yet. I hate always going back to Ben Shapiro's points (I don't believe in stealing people's ideas without giving credit), but to his point, Trump's policies are largely good, but a president is more than public policy. A president should be able to unite people and to give the nation a common purpose. Trump has had all the opportunity in the world to seek out detente and to tone down the rhetoric but has consciously chosen not to.
So yeah, Trump could be a great president. The question is, will Trump choose to be great or not? I don't think he will. I don't think it's in his nature. I think Trump's ceiling is a simply "good" president, which is unfortunate.
Haha this thread is going to get locked .
Consumer and business confidence are real things - they contributes to people spending more of their paychecks; it contributes to companies investing more in capex and hiring.
Tax reform and regulation rollback are real things - more goes to companies' / individuals' bottom lines and small business are freed of the chains which shackled them in the Obama era.
Market sentiment and performance are real things - Investors see the bigger picture and confidence in the macroeconomic environment drives additional institutional / retail investment into equities. Wealth grows, even if there is a later and inevitable regression to the mean.
I don't understand how you clowns can literally put your hands in front of your eyes and turn the the other way. It is a straight up case of denial and actually pathological.
Did we read the same transcript? Trump didn't in any way answer the following questions:
"Have you learned anything?" "Would you do anything different now?" "Are you opening up the door to reopening TPP?" "Can you give me any indication of the way you're leaning?" "What's going to happen on Monday with DACA?" "Will Cotton go along with [10-12 years for citizenship]?" "Will you ask for $25 billion?" "Did Schumer offer $1.6 billion? ... How much did he agree to?" "Will we have another shutdown?" "Will you move more towards the center on immigration?"
Look, man, I'm a conservative but Trump can't string together a business conversation to save his life. There was no thought put into his responses, just "I've beaten ISIS" and "a lot of people have given me an A. Somebody gave me an A-plus."
Reciprocity doesn't make sense to be based on the same tariffs in exactly the same industries because countries specialize in different goods.
Globalism, for lack of a better word, is good.
Have you ever considered that he isn't obligated to divulge information and details relating to every question he's asked? For some of these questions you have to hold your cards tight to your chest. A lot of the immigration / trade questions are sensitive and could be used as leverage against him, given there are ongoing talks and negotiations.
the ol' "Trump is playing 8-D chess" defense! Thought we dispelled of this one a long time ago.
Globalism is good. That’s as nuanced as you are going to get.?
Lower prices for goods, yes. I’m sure someone losing $25k in annual income is happy they are saving $5k in consumer goods.
Globalism has pros and cons. Everything in moderation. No reason why we cannot have responsible globalism.
And Trump removes restrictions regarding drone usage, gave field generals freedom to operate and put Mattis in charge. ISIS isn’t gone for good, but to pretend like Trumps policy shift had nothing to do with it is bulkshit.
It's a turn on a Gordon Gekko quote... I agree with moderation.
Also agree with your points on military change, it's just reductionist and a bit silly to use the word "I" in that sentence. I can poke fun at the lack of humility without denigrating the real accomplishments, right? Trying to stay out of this left-right divide.
You guys should know better than to argue with the left. They're always victimizing themselves and would happily argue with a wall.
Apparently they're smarter than Ray Dalio who is a liberal himself but has a rare ability that distinguishes him from the sheep (ability to form thought void feelings)
=========================================== Ray Dalio is a LinkedIn Influencer Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Bridgewater Associates, L.P.
Donald Trump's Speech at Davos Was Aggressive, Thoughtful, and Well-Received
From the outset we knew that Donald Trump would be aggressive. The question was whether he would be aggressive and reckless or aggressive and thoughtful. Today at Davos he came across as aggressive and thoughtful and was well-received by the Davos crowd who was predisposed to be very critical.
It is also accurate that he created a lot of stimulation in a pro-business way so the economy and profits will pick up significantly over the near term. Those are facts. I won't comment on anything else right now.
Everything I read in the journal, economist, etc, is positive economically regarding trump. CEOs are excited, companies are investing, increasing wages, giving bonuses, etc.
Trump officials are asking companies which regulations give them the most grief. FDIC head wants more smaller banks. Wilbur Ross is the shit, nafta will remain, but be updated to current day, weak dollar will help exports.
Like i do t get the issue. DACA will remain. Literally this is trump negotiating 101. Start extreme, end up in the middle. He just beats up on people and the compromisss.
Of, the entire remake of the federal court system is the biggest, I talked about thing going on.
It looks like Democrats are going to reject the generous amnesty deal. Unreal.
Democrats are absolutely batshit crazy on immigration. Here's what they want: amnesty and citizenship for all illegal aliens, no increased border security of any sort, no border protection, and continue to import unskilled immigrants in large numbers to our country. Their long-term goal is to add millions of government dependent lower class immigrants to the ranks of the Democratic Party.
Ok no trolling here. Seriously no trolling in this post:
Trump should communicate like he did in this interview all the time. Just stay on point about the issues and don't go on unnecessary Twitter rants. I understand much of the media is sensationalist in covering him but he gives them so much fodder usually. Maybe he's just more comfortable in a one-on-one setting.
On illegal immigration the only reason Democrats bleed for them is because a vast majority of them are Latino and there are obvious benefits to staying in America instead of going back to gasp shit hole like El Salvador, Mexico, Honduras, etc.
More illegals = pressure to legalize then became Citizens = groom your future voting base for eons to come.
Trump's state of the union speech last night - another huge win.
Made me feel glad to be an American
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