What do you think the catalyst for the next recession will be?

Given what we know now, what do you think the catalyst for the next recession will be and why? Fed seems to be very cautious with interest rate hikes, so there's a lower probability of this spiking our economy.

The big one I can think of (as I suspect most others can) is potentially a trade war. Aside from this obvious catalyst, any other ones you see that could send us into a recession? Why?

 

Europe already made concessions. Canada and Mexico will be next. China’s economy is being pounded and will eventually concede.

So a Trade war isn’t going to topple shit. I don’t think we will see much fed action until after the midterms. Either way, the tax cuts helped fuel the real economy.

I’d imagine if a far left wing Democrat is elected in 2020. The market would be depressed and the reinstatement of the endless Obama regulations, coupled with higher taxes (only trick the Dems have), would slow the economy substantially.

 
Most Helpful
TNA:
Europe already made concessions. Canada and Mexico will be next. China’s economy is being pounded and will eventually concede.

So a Trade war isn’t going to topple shit. I don’t think we will see much fed action until after the midterms. Either way, the tax cuts helped fuel the real economy.

I’d imagine if a far left wing Democrat is elected in 2020. The market would be depressed and the reinstatement of the endless Obama regulations, coupled with higher taxes (only trick the Dems have), would slow the economy substantially.

Ugh... jobs added to the economy since Trump was elected is exactly the same in the equivalent time period during Obama’s last run. It has nothing to do with Trump. Republicans think the economy is a little better than when Obama was in office and Dems think the opposite. Tired of seeing this left nut vs right but stuff. You both should just go in a room and knock boots already.

 

Sure pal. Let’s look at war growth, quality of jobs, etc.

Plain fact is the tax cut lowered Corp taxes and incentivized companies to invest in capex. Couple this with reducing endless regulations are a positive for business.

Either way, who cares. I don’t give a shit about your opinion and you don’t care about mine.

Edit - your post just shows how fucking triggered you are.

Tax cuts and trade concessions will fuel the economy. Increased regulations and tax increases will slow the economy. That’s the gist of my post.

But keep spazing out all the time.

 
Funniest
TNA:
Europe already made concessions. Canada and Mexico will be next. China’s economy is being pounded and will eventually concede.

So a Trade war isn’t going to topple shit. I don’t think we will see much fed action until after the midterms. Either way, the tax cuts helped fuel the real economy.

I’d imagine if a far left wing Democrat is elected in 2020. The market would be depressed and the reinstatement of the endless Obama regulations, coupled with higher taxes (only trick the Dems have), would slow the economy substantially.

TNA’s ability to spew hatred towards “the left” in every thread, regardless of topic, continues to astound me.

 
GuyLafleur:
<span class=keyword_link><a href=/company/trilantic-north-america>TNA</a></span>:
Europe already made concessions. Canada and Mexico will be next. China’s economy is being pounded and will eventually concede.

So a Trade war isn’t going to topple shit. I don’t think we will see much fed action until after the midterms. Either way, the tax cuts helped fuel the real economy.

I’d imagine if a far left wing Democrat is elected in 2020. The market would be depressed and the reinstatement of the endless Obama regulations, coupled with higher taxes (only trick the Dems have), would slow the economy substantially.

TNA’s ability to spew hatred towards “the left” in every thread, regardless of topic, continues to astound me.

The left clearly wants to take all our guns, acquire all production assets and pay everyone the same

 

Fingers crossed for a multi-continent pandemic that wipes out 30-50% of the human population.
Ideally, this virus would be indiscriminate towards age/race/health (to enable an egalitarian purge).

Capitalism, nary an able-bodied working population (i.e. wage slaves) would collapse.
My puts would skyrocket. Bingo.

Bonus points if I also die in aforementioned pandemic. Curious about the inverse of life.

 

Last month, I read a very interesting article about the next recession. And it says not when does it come, but where (Link to the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/07/05/the-qu…)

Ben Spielberg and Jared Bernstein wrote a whole paper on what to do to get ready for the next recession. They recommend more responsive triggers to make sure the automatic stuff — unemployment insurance, food stamps — turns on and off more responsively to conditions on the ground. They have since argued for a Full Employment Fund that could ramp up to subsidized jobs where and when needed. But based on the latest figures, one of the most important fiscal policy corrections is to replace the tax cuts with a plan that stabilizes and reduces the debt in periods of full employment, to have more (perceived) fiscal space when we need it.

 

sex robots & VR. men will never leave the house, hurting productivity and procreation, slowing consumer spending. eventually they will all go on food stamps because they don't want to work (I have food & sex, what more do you need?), and so what starts as an economic downturn becomes a debt spiral with an aging population that doesn't die because of cardiovascular and prostate health given all of the fucking men are doing.

if you think I'm serious, go make another cup of coffee. if you could predict the next recession, you'd make out very nicely. there are factors that will contribute to it, but the straw that breaks the camel's back is almost always a surprise when it happens (not so much the what, but the when)

 

I’m not sure if this causes the next recession or is a problem further down the road but the national debt concerns me. It just keeps growing and neither political party has any serious intention of reducing the national debt. We’re running a deficit right now with a booming economy and a Republican executive and legislative branch. I feel like we’re heading in the same direction as Europe and both parties only care about winning the next election. It’s disgraceful.

 
Pokemon Master:
I’m not sure if this causes the next recession or is a problem further down the road but the national debt concerns me. It just keeps growing and neither political party has any serious intention of reducing the national debt. We’re running a deficit right now with a booming economy and a Republican executive and legislative branch. I feel like we’re heading in the same direction as Europe and both parties only care about winning the next election. It’s disgraceful.

I don't want to sound like the leftist progressive, but the true and objective theory on this is that the financial sector, advanced tax strategy, etc., is directly linked to the deficit and national debt level. I'm sure the current administration wanted to address this issue with offshoring cash at the large corps, but I'm not sure if that is enough to fully address the issue.

 

My theory:

Tensions in Middle East / some sort of future event like major ISIS bombing / Israel-Palestine war leads to bad political consequences: * Maybe another OPEC oil embargo * Saudi manipulation of global market * US and Russia take opposite sides, reignite Cold War, tariffs all over the place, general fearmongering, etc.

Consumer confidence sharply declines, and recession is exacerbated by a variety of factors: * Increasing number of retirees * Very little in the way of savings for most Americans * Massive student debt * Rising cost of healthcare * Stagnant real wage growth * Elevated housing prices * Fed funds rate half of what it was during the last recession (limits ability to use monetary policy)

SP500 takes a big 20-30% crash because of political event, all the news networks proclaim the end of the world, people stop buying shit in fear, world economy comes to a halt.

 

The Fed inflated asset prices by manipulating interest rates and quantitative easing. This caused houses to rise far faster than income, stocks to rise independent of fundamentals, bonds to fall in price, etc. It is like an everything bubble.

Some of the more obvious distortions in the economy are TSLA, bitcoin, and San Francisco real estate but it is all over the place.

Inflation will eventually force the Federal Reserve's hand. They'll have to raise interest rates and it will collapse the market. QE will turn into quantitative tightening and the magical "wealth effect" will work in reverse.

IMO Trump is forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates... they don't want to be seen as politically motivated by appeasing him... so they have to keep raising rates to avoid looking weak.

 

Voluptatum nobis non aut possimus fugiat. At sit et est tempora odio. Culpa quia ratione quam repudiandae totam dolore. Nostrum quam molestias quod cupiditate aut a voluptatibus quis.

Sed dicta natus temporibus quibusdam quod aut. Ea est earum laudantium praesentium ducimus quasi maxime. Mollitia iusto velit omnis illum. Ut voluptate et dolor illum.

Et perspiciatis voluptatibus delectus commodi ut ducimus. Eos nihil quia et. Voluptatem quam voluptatem est excepturi modi ut in ea. Dolor labore et laudantium recusandae amet et modi. A animi enim similique eum. Sunt provident quos officiis illum velit. Rerum ad est voluptas sunt distinctio numquam.

Quo non fuga qui culpa fugiat. Nam accusamus amet iure eos quis autem. Rem aut facilis quo eaque earum porro dolor. Eveniet qui blanditiis et soluta aspernatur iste.

Career Advancement Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. (++) 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (86) $261
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (13) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (202) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (144) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
3
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
4
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
5
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
6
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
7
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
8
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
9
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
10
Jamoldo's picture
Jamoldo
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”