What do you think the catalyst for the next recession will be?

Given what we know now, what do you think the catalyst for the next recession will be and why? Fed seems to be very cautious with interest rate hikes, so there's a lower probability of this spiking our economy.

The big one I can think of (as I suspect most others can) is potentially a trade war. Aside from this obvious catalyst, any other ones you see that could send us into a recession? Why?

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Comments (18)

Aug 12, 2018

Europe already made concessions. Canada and Mexico will be next. China's economy is being pounded and will eventually concede.

So a Trade war isn't going to topple shit. I don't think we will see much fed action until after the midterms. Either way, the tax cuts helped fuel the real economy.

I'd imagine if a far left wing Democrat is elected in 2020. The market would be depressed and the reinstatement of the endless Obama regulations, coupled with higher taxes (only trick the Dems have), would slow the economy substantially.

Most Helpful
Aug 12, 2018
TNA:

Europe already made concessions. Canada and Mexico will be next. China's economy is being pounded and will eventually concede.

So a Trade war isn't going to topple shit. I don't think we will see much fed action until after the midterms. Either way, the tax cuts helped fuel the real economy.

I'd imagine if a far left wing Democrat is elected in 2020. The market would be depressed and the reinstatement of the endless Obama regulations, coupled with higher taxes (only trick the Dems have), would slow the economy substantially.

Ugh... jobs added to the economy since Trump was elected is exactly the same in the equivalent time period during Obama's last run. It has nothing to do with Trump. Republicans think the economy is a little better than when Obama was in office and Dems think the opposite. Tired of seeing this left nut vs right but stuff. You both should just go in a room and knock boots already.

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Aug 12, 2018

Sure pal. Let's look at war growth, quality of jobs, etc.

Plain fact is the tax cut lowered Corp taxes and incentivized companies to invest in capex. Couple this with reducing endless regulations are a positive for business.

Either way, who cares. I don't give a shit about your opinion and you don't care about mine.

Edit - your post just shows how fucking triggered you are.

Tax cuts and trade concessions will fuel the economy. Increased regulations and tax increases will slow the economy. That's the gist of my post.

But keep spazing out all the time.

Funniest
Aug 17, 2018
TNA:

Europe already made concessions. Canada and Mexico will be next. China's economy is being pounded and will eventually concede.

So a Trade war isn't going to topple shit. I don't think we will see much fed action until after the midterms. Either way, the tax cuts helped fuel the real economy.

I'd imagine if a far left wing Democrat is elected in 2020. The market would be depressed and the reinstatement of the endless Obama regulations, coupled with higher taxes (only trick the Dems have), would slow the economy substantially.

TNA's ability to spew hatred towards "the left" in every thread, regardless of topic, continues to astound me.

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Aug 20, 2018
GuyLafleur:
TNA:

Europe already made concessions. Canada and Mexico will be next. China's economy is being pounded and will eventually concede.

So a Trade war isn't going to topple shit. I don't think we will see much fed action until after the midterms. Either way, the tax cuts helped fuel the real economy.

I'd imagine if a far left wing Democrat is elected in 2020. The market would be depressed and the reinstatement of the endless Obama regulations, coupled with higher taxes (only trick the Dems have), would slow the economy substantially.

TNA's ability to spew hatred towards "the left" in every thread, regardless of topic, continues to astound me.

The left clearly wants to take all our guns, acquire all production assets and pay everyone the same

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Aug 12, 2018

Fingers crossed for a multi-continent pandemic that wipes out 30-50% of the human population.
Ideally, this virus would be indiscriminate towards age/race/health (to enable an egalitarian purge).

Capitalism, nary an able-bodied working population (i.e. wage slaves) would collapse.
My puts would skyrocket. Bingo.

Bonus points if I also die in aforementioned pandemic. Curious about the inverse of life.

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Aug 12, 2018

Student loans.

Aug 12, 2018

Nope. Student loans could exacerbate a recession but won't cause it.

Aug 12, 2018

Last month, I read a very interesting article about the next recession. And it says not when does it come, but where (Link to the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything...)
Ben Spielberg and Jared Bernstein wrote a whole paper on what to do to get ready for the next recession. They recommend more responsive triggers to make sure the automatic stuff -- unemployment insurance, food stamps -- turns on and off more responsively to conditions on the ground. They have since argued for a Full Employment Fund that could ramp up to subsidized jobs where and when needed. But based on the latest figures, one of the most important fiscal policy corrections is to replace the tax cuts with a plan that stabilizes and reduces the debt in periods of full employment, to have more (perceived) fiscal space when we need it.

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Aug 17, 2018

Gartman recently said an exaggerated and stunning rally could be on the way. Recession is imminent.

Aug 20, 2018

sex robots & VR. men will never leave the house, hurting productivity and procreation, slowing consumer spending. eventually they will all go on food stamps because they don't want to work (I have food & sex, what more do you need?), and so what starts as an economic downturn becomes a debt spiral with an aging population that doesn't die because of cardiovascular and prostate health given all of the fucking men are doing.

if you think I'm serious, go make another cup of coffee. if you could predict the next recession, you'd make out very nicely. there are factors that will contribute to it, but the straw that breaks the camel's back is almost always a surprise when it happens (not so much the what, but the when)

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Aug 20, 2018

Student loans and/or delinquent automotive loans. Not sure if either would be the catalyst but would contribute to the overall downward cycle.

Aug 20, 2018

I'm not sure if this causes the next recession or is a problem further down the road but the national debt concerns me. It just keeps growing and neither political party has any serious intention of reducing the national debt. We're running a deficit right now with a booming economy and a Republican executive and legislative branch. I feel like we're heading in the same direction as Europe and both parties only care about winning the next election. It's disgraceful.

Aug 12, 2018
Pokemon Master:

I'm not sure if this causes the next recession or is a problem further down the road but the national debt concerns me. It just keeps growing and neither political party has any serious intention of reducing the national debt. We're running a deficit right now with a booming economy and a Republican executive and legislative branch. I feel like we're heading in the same direction as Europe and both parties only care about winning the next election. It's disgraceful.

I don't want to sound like the leftist progressive, but the true and objective theory on this is that the financial sector, advanced tax strategy, etc., is directly linked to the deficit and national debt level. I'm sure the current administration wanted to address this issue with offshoring cash at the large corps, but I'm not sure if that is enough to fully address the issue.

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Aug 20, 2018

Next downturn will be the result of the bursting of the social media bubble. This recession will extend beyond market turmoil.

I really don't know if I'm writing this post ironically or not anymore...

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Aug 20, 2018

My theory:

Tensions in Middle East / some sort of future event like major ISIS bombing / Israel-Palestine war leads to bad political consequences:
* Maybe another OPEC oil embargo
* Saudi manipulation of global market
* US and Russia take opposite sides, reignite Cold War, tariffs all over the place, general fearmongering, etc.

Consumer confidence sharply declines, and recession is exacerbated by a variety of factors:
* Increasing number of retirees
* Very little in the way of savings for most Americans
* Massive student debt
* Rising cost of healthcare
* Stagnant real wage growth
* Elevated housing prices
* Fed funds rate half of what it was during the last recession (limits ability to use monetary policy)

SP500 takes a big 20-30% crash because of political event, all the news networks proclaim the end of the world, people stop buying shit in fear, world economy comes to a halt.

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Aug 21, 2018

The Fed inflated asset prices by manipulating interest rates and quantitative easing. This caused houses to rise far faster than income, stocks to rise independent of fundamentals, bonds to fall in price, etc. It is like an everything bubble.

Some of the more obvious distortions in the economy are TSLA, bitcoin, and San Francisco real estate but it is all over the place.

Inflation will eventually force the Federal Reserve's hand. They'll have to raise interest rates and it will collapse the market. QE will turn into quantitative tightening and the magical "wealth effect" will work in reverse.

IMO Trump is forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates... they don't want to be seen as politically motivated by appeasing him... so they have to keep raising rates to avoid looking weak.

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Aug 21, 2018
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