PT on Written Pitch
Writing pitches for LO AM with potential to hold for 2-3 years and I’m a little confused on how to approach the PT at the top. I’m in ER and used to having a 12-18 month PT, but I don’t know if I see use in that if I’m recommending holding until longer. I have a table that shows the expected share price and annualized return in a 1-4 year holding period, so the range of PT is present. Do I just pick the one I think makes the most sense for the investment? What’s the best way to approach this?
When crafting a pitch for a long-only asset management (LO AM) role with a 2-3 year holding period, it's important to align your price target (PT) with the investment horizon and the thesis you're presenting. Based on the most helpful WSO content, here’s how you can approach it:
Focus on the Long-Term Target: Since your holding period is 2-3 years, your PT should reflect the expected value at the end of that horizon. Highlight the key drivers that will lead to this valuation over time, such as earnings growth, margin expansion, or multiple re-rating.
Provide a Range: Including a table with expected share prices and annualized returns over 1-4 years is a great idea. It shows flexibility and accounts for different scenarios. However, for the pitch, you should emphasize the PT that aligns with your core thesis and the most likely scenario over the 2-3 year period.
Justify Your Selection: Clearly explain why the chosen PT makes the most sense. Tie it back to your investment thesis, valuation metrics (e.g., forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF), and catalysts that will drive the stock to that level. This will demonstrate your conviction and analytical rigor.
Address Risks and Sensitivities: Acknowledge the downside risks and how they could impact your PT. This adds credibility and shows that you’ve considered multiple outcomes.
Communicate Annualized Returns: For LO AM, annualized returns are often a key metric. Make sure to highlight the expected annualized return at your PT to show how it aligns with the fund’s return objectives.
Ultimately, pick the PT that best reflects your thesis and the most probable outcome over the 2-3 year horizon. Use the range as supporting evidence but anchor your recommendation on the PT that aligns with your analysis and the fund’s investment philosophy.
Sources: How long does it take to formulate a investment idea / stock pitch, How does LT investing work?, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/hedge-fund/hf-analyst-pitch-examples?customgpt=1, January 2016 Data Update 1: The US Equity Markets, Reflections from year 4 as an equity analyst
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