Timeline for PE recruitment from MBB

Also starting at MBB this summer and dug around on this subject. My understanding is that, while some consultants will recruit on-cycle this year, it is very typical for MBB -> PE folks to stay for three years (i.e. to recruit for PE after year one). Boils down to the below:

• MBB 3rd year can be fun (secondments, etc.) so staying can be a cool/low-stress opportunity to continue making good money while working for, say, a non-profit.
• Many PE firms (even those who are open to taking consultants like H&F) like to see a stronger track record of on-the-job success for consultants vs. bankers (generally). They will back-channel with contacts at MBB to verify performance. As such, it makes sense to wait until you have a few rounds of reviews under your belt (i.e. wait one year or maybe do off-cycle a few months in).
• A corollary to the above is that, in banking, you can largely assume that anyone who is a top performer in a strong group will probably have the prerequisite skills/experience to succeed in PE after two years. In contrast, you could spend two years at MBB and never touch CDDs or strategy, making you a less desirable PE candidate. Thus, it is difficult to discern whether a consultant will have relevant case experience by the end of their tenure, so it is better to wait until one can confirm that they do. 

Lastly, PE hiring seems to have slowed quite a bit (as far as I can tell by WSO). More competition for fewer seats, especially when accounting for the layoffs in banking. I'm not exactly upset by the prospect of waiting a year to enter PE recruiting. Plus, MBB offers a lot of great exits (and I could be interested in sticking around if I like the work). I plan on working as hard as I can to succeed as a BA/A/AC and then evaluating my interests from there.