What's next for Bitcoin?
With the recent ETH merger and the ETH 2.0, BTC saw a good pump but with Tesla issuing a recent statement that it has sold 75% of its Bitcoin, BTC has started falling. Want your views on where is BTC headed next
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Bitcoin is inherently worthless digital trash. The only reason it ever goes up or down is speculation. It doesn’t have Cashflows like stocks, an interest yield like Bonds or actual utility (and therefore natural demand) like commodities (among them oil and gold). If you want to tell me that it has utility as a currency I’ll have to ask you why you would like to use Bitcoin, which has high transaction costs and long transaction times, instead of just using money which by the way you can actually use to purchase whatever you want instead of just a small subset of things. Not to mention that interest rate parity is what determines the relative value of currencies, whereas Bitcoin doesn’t have an interest rate associated with it. Maybe it has value because it’s limited in its quantity? Not if you can’t use it for anything. The fact that it’s limited won’t raise the price if nobody wants to own it anymore. There’s only so much feces I can shit out in a lifetime. Therefore my shit is limited. Nobody ever wanted to buy it from me though, for whatever reason.
I could claim that Bitcoin is worth $500K or claim that Bitcoin is worth $1K. Both statements would be baseless and unprovable. If Bitcoin goes up to $2B per coin I wouldn’t care in the slightest because there was no way for me to reasonably expect that to happen by actually calculating its value. Because there is nothing to calculate. Let’s play through a scenario where you had absolutely no rational reason to buy.
What would you do if you purchased Bitcoin at, let’s say, $60K. And let’s assume for a second it fell by more than 50%. Now you revisit your „thesis“ which was that „It’ll probably go up, I guess.“. In this scenario though, that didn’t happen. Are you going to sell? Or buy more? Which metric will you use to make that decision? What will you do if it goes up by 100%? Why?
Now let’s travel back in time. You realize that this will happen at some point. Why would you ever put money into this?
Blockchain tech is cool though.
Extremely well said brother
Great points, but my view is that the intrinsic value of anything is ultimately the value that humans/society places on an item. The main utility of gold is jewelry, but if we wanted to we could have given actual shit that purpose (think necklaces made of shit). The capital markets are valued on cash flow generation, which is just useless paper at its core that wouldn't have any utility except for the fact that society decided we could use it to buy/sell items.
Being long bitcoin is speculation that we will, similar to the likes of gold/cash way back in the day, integrate it into society sometime in the future. I'm sure people made the same arguments about the internet a few decades back, which makes sense because at that time it was hard to see any real utility.
People tend to be very bearish on technology that they don't understand. I don't really understand crypto either, but I'm still going to invest an amount that I'm comfortable losing because I'm young and have high risk-tolerance. As history has shown, there's a good chance someone will come along and build on crypto to actually realize the value potential.
This aged well - genius. @sharky
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Great insight but i partially agree with you
Were you talking to me? You didn’t directly respond to my post which is why I’m asking.
If so, I’m not here to discuss but I would still like to know what you disagree with. Hope there’s a way I can improve in my thinking. Thanks.
Bitcoin probably has a few more years of spikes and troughs, good way to gamble some money. Unfortunately, I don't gamble.
And the above has nothing to do with bitcoin's utility, and more to do with how balls-deep retail "investors" are in it and how much of a platform is being given to loud dumbo finfluencer goobers. The ride isn't going to end until half of the poor bros who got reeled in actually lose their houses and end up in financial ruin for decades.
The ETH merge hasn't happened yet.
Personally, I'm waiting a couple months until I'm continuing my DCA. If you look at BTC's market cycles and halvings, end of Q4 2022 / beginning of Q1 2023 would be a good time to start loading up again. Next cycle we'll see a >$200k BTC.
The ETH merge might be a changing point
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