Biotech stock pitch - where do you start?
I’m preparing some biotech stocks to pitch, and I’m fairly clear on how to structure those, the valuation exercise behind it etc. Would like to prepare 1 long and 1 short. However, I feel stuck getting started and unsure what the best approach is. Can you share how you would approach these stock pitches and how you can start narrowing down your list until you pick the one? I know I’d like to stick with small/mid cap companies, with one lead asset/one indication if possible to make things simple. Any resource/website to leverage? Would appreciate any guidance, thanks.
Pick a therapeutics area you’re interested in. No way to really tell someone what stock to pitch.
Whats your educational background? If you got a PhD in hepatology then pitch a MASH company. You get the idea
Got it. I’m a surgeon.
Yes same - or at least I was in residency. You finish residency or still a resident?
Look into HUMA. Great fit for your profile in terms of storytelling if you can get the numbers down. There’s a handful of other surgical device names you could look into if you wanna go for that angle, but if you’re only into therapeutics then can’t do that
I’ve now heard of 4 surgeons leaving residency for bio ER or buyside roles. Interesting - why surgeons specifically? Cause residency is tough? What about other specialists? This is more for my curiosity sorry.
to answer your question, pick BBIO bc we’ll get ALNY Helios-B data very soon. And Helios might be poor and BBIO would have a massive overhang removed. Or u can have the opposite conclusion and say Helios works. This is a very high profile readout so ppl would listen to this pitch (whatever ur thesis is: long or short).
Thanks, this is super helpful.
I forgot to mention, I’m at MBB currently so left surgery some time ago already. Surgery is absolutely amazing, but it is all-consuming and working nights, weekends, holidays and often 90-100hrs per week make it less appealing of a career choice.
Do you know of any other stocks that might be equally interesting, perhaps in oncology?
Wait why try to go from MBB to ER? I think you’ll get looks for the Buyside (PE/VC/HF) from MBB.
My cousin works in private equity and he said his fund was 50% ex consultants.
In oncology, especially at this valuation (come back down a lot from recent high), Arvinas is an interesting one. The protein degradation space continues to be interesting.
Others: ALXO has a big readout coming. It could revive all of CD47 (which has failed time and time again) - they differentiate on molecule (inactive Fc). If works, that thing is bought 100%.
Be careful with oncology names if you are not really following markets closely just yet. It is by far the most active area in therapeutics (something like 75% of all dollars deployed in biotech goes to onc) and thus can have a steeper learning curve when it comes to knowing about the current landscape, from SOC to competitors to clinical trial design. It highly depends on what kind of role you are going for and what kind of fund it is. If you've worked with any onc companies at your MBB job, it'd be a good idea to look at similar indications so you have a better starting point to build off of. Could also post the area here if you want to use us for more targeted idea generation, though I'd argue that you should try your hand at it first with some names from a learning perspective
In the meantime, I'll bite on some brainstorming for oncology names and potential questions
URGN: commercialized 101, just read out DoR in 102 for LG-IR NMIBC, will likely become SOC. Model out the potential market opportunity and give your projections on where S&M, penetration, sales force KPIs need to be to reach XXX valuations. How much of 101's resources can they use vs how much de novo? Any pipeline competitors in the next 3-5 years?
BBIO/IONS: competitors to ALNY as mentioned above with HELIOS-B reading out later this month. I wouldn't get into the weeds of projecting a binary at your current level of training...you could get creamed pretty easily if someone wanted to grill you so the r/r just isn't there. Instead, focus on what a pos/neg/intermediate readout would mean for either of these names. What would be 1L/2L tx in your scenarios, how much market share could each existing asset get? How long would it take BBIO to rerate if this overhang is removed, where should it rerate to given stage of development, what do you want to see in NTM earnings/guidance?
BHVN: where does this s*** company go from here? (Excuse my French.) How do you think about valuations for its current "pipeline" (more like scattered science projects)? Where does it fit in the increasingly crowded IgG/FcRn space? Is it better/worse than IMVT/ARGX and explain why? If you don't know, what do you want to see from a data perspective to figure it out?
Note that the questions are only meant to help you along in this process, certainly not dictating what a finalized pitch should look like.
Think it’s the same dude fam. People don’t just leave surgery residency like that. What you see on WSO is obviously the overwhelming minority.
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