ER outlook
Been considering ER as a career path, but I keep stumbling on the idea that it's a dying industry, mostly because of the MiFID II unbundling rules that came into effect in 2018. Although MiFID II was not passed in the US, large global asset managers operating under it applied the unbundling rules globally, which hurt US ER firms. In the UK it seems the rules were reversed, or at least partially. As someone looking to enter ER, would it be better to do so in Europe, and will the industry see any type of resurgence (either in the US or Europe)?
Bro Mifid was 10 years ago. Whatever effects are from it have already embedded, the industry is still here (and this convo has been done to death, do some... Research...). No it's not as good as it was pre Mifid but Mifid is really the last thing relevant for ERs outlook.
The biggest fat question mark on ER is AI. I work at one of the massive equity houses. We are balls to the wall on AI and the message coming from the top is that this industry is going to change a lot. The type of work you're going to do is going to *have to* change. To an extent it already is. The type of stuff clients want/need from us is different and is going to continue to become different. In essence it's been kicked up a gear - I think the job is going to become much harder to do well in. It's going to become more thematic. Weak research is going to be ignored more while very unique ideas are going to be craved more. I.e. good analysts are going to suck even more of economics (I don't think on average though that pay is gonna go up). It's going to become more cerebral. There's going to be less maintenance work (updating models manually for example is now almost a thing of the past) - which in my head is a double edged sword. If we manage to capture the time back from maintenance work and put it into "thinking" that's probably quite good for job satisfaction. But thinking is also very draining. Thinking very hard for 12 hours a day is very draining. That might sound lazy and it probably is but I think it's a reality. Sometimes you need the mundane to rest your brain. I think you're gonna get less of that. Also though, job becomes harder and you certainly are not going to get paid any more. Also probably need fewer juniors going forward (already seeing this at my bank) cos less maintenance work. Also training juniors is going to have to evolve because you used to train on the manual stuff - osmosis becomes harder, you need to be more intentional. But weirdly because of what I said earlier i.e. less maintenance work, more cerebral, you're going to have to be a contributing, idea generating analyst a lot earlier than you used to to have any real value. There is not much value in being a process monkey..
Anyway that was a rant, in summary (sorry I used AI cos lazy):
AI is going to make weak research easier to ignore.
Clients will care more about unique ideas and research and thematic stuff. Big picture.
Maintenance work is going to matter less and probably be done less.
Fewer juniors needed if less of the job is manual process. But junior training gets harder because this work used to be part of the learning curve.
You will need to become useful earlier as an idea-generating analyst, not just a process monkey.
The job probably gets more intellectually interesting, but also more draining. But I do not think average pay goes up.
So ER still attractive if you really like the idea of being a highly differentiated idea generator, stock broker and big picture thematic work. I suppose this is technically what you're supposed to aspire to anyway. Personally, the idea of doing more hard work and getting paid the same on avg sounds less appealing to me.
ER is still a good funnel into public buyside seats/IR. It basically doesn't translate into anything else well (though people do sometimes find exits to fun things). I still think consulting/banking is a better spring board for broader things.
Thanks for the detailed response. Really should've seen the do some research joke from a mile away, but I like instant gratification. By the sounds of what you are saying, it seems ER will become an even better training ground for buyside gigs if the work is geared toward differentiated idea generation early.
Yeah kind of. I mean that was sort of always an option for those who worked hard and aspired greatly but perhaps there will be more room for that now or rather more requirement for it? In my head though, as the cynic I am, that means there's probably less job security too - if you can't be one of these people early then there's not much room for you to add value.
These are my views btw as 4YOE in ER.
Management hasn't articulated super clearly how the role will change.
You’re seeing more niche and independent ER outfits come up that monetize in different ways. The Centrini thematic research guys are active on Twitter and hilarious - sending an Analyst to the straight was interesting and funny.
Atrium in Toronto has found a niche of paid ER with issuer clients.
Then at traditional ER firms totally agree the bar is now much higher and thematic will make sense. Most ER is generic and will be wiped out by AI IMO
MiFID II is actually being rolled back in the UK and Europe right now (as of June 2026) to allow rebundling, so the 'dying industry' peak has passed. Stick to the US if you can though—the wallet share and exit ops are still drastically better.
Yeah, seeing that news was kind of what prompted my question. The goal, as I am sure it is for a lot of people, is either to get paid as well as possible in ER or exit to the buy-side, where pay seems a lot better, although there may be a survivorship bias in the data. Really just looking to see what the outlook on pay is for ER but the consensus seems to be it stays flat.
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