How long until AI changes ER routines dramatically?
I have seen this project related to building research reports using GPT-3 (the same tool used to build ChatGPT).
It is clear that equity research is way more complex than writing reports, but how long do you believe that it will take for projects such as this to write a report with the same quality that an ER division does, and, consequently, change the ER routine dramatically?
If everyone used AI to create ER reports, the output would all converge to be the same given the same dataset. ChatGPT and the like are great at using the past to inform the future, but humans are able to imagine a different future not based on the past. I don’t think it will get to the level of building our entire ER reports anytime soon, but can be a tool the same way searching on Google is a tool and accelerate the process.
Great point. I also do believe that it will take some years until AI can allow analysts to create reports with the same level of content depth and authoring.
However, I believe that some commoditized content available in the internet could be easier targets for AI to replace. Wouldn't replace top-tier EQR anytime soon though.
My take is that it can probably help with writing the background info. But I think it’s unlikely it would be able to provide contexts behind the data or interpret potential stock movement based on consensus view (sellside and buyside). My hope is that it can one day replace most of the busy, mindless work during earnings season (ie first take of the PR).
I’ve been using the GPT API a good amount the last few weeks, and I think it’s already possible to use it to model different scenarios, you just need to be able to make those scenarios explicit and know how to ask the machine to generate content in terms of your framework. It takes practice but I’ve already found it incredibly useful in terms of generating hypotheses, deciphering technical information, researching market dynamics, etc. It isn’t very good at reasoning, but it’s very good at guessing.
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