P/E ratio oscillates up and down over business cycle. Looking at justified PE ratio formula, the key driver to me is "g", the expected growth rate. Does expected "g" osciallte over its longer-term trend line, which in turn is determined by company's competitive position and industry factors?
I understand that expected growth rate goes up and down with the business cycle, which explains why PE ratio's behavior between booms and troughs in GDP growth. However, then I think about the company's long term strategy and associated competitive position, which should set a trending long-term "g" or growth rate. Would it be correct to say that the firm's growth rate over the next 2-3 years oscillates around its longer term trending line growth rate (with business cycle), which in turn is determined by the company's long term competitive strategy relative to peers and industry factors? An analogy would be the country's GDP oscillating around its full-employment (potential) GDP over business cycle. Any input would be greatly appreciated.
