A friend told me about this company - Kalshi - that is trying to create an exchange for betting. For instance, given a topic "will it rain tomorrow" people would buy "yes" or "no" options and their price would change frequently according to supply and demand. What do you guys think
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sounds baseless and stupid only meant for gambling
that being said im a gambling addict so im going to check it out.
There are some pretty insane derivatives now a days that are pretty much gambling... for your example there are OTC weather derivatives and even some exchange traded ones
Think these can also be used as a hedging instruments rather than gambling
“Will it rain tomorrow?”
checks weather.com
90% chance of rain tomorrow
“Hmm... horrible odds.. Pays out 1000:1... let me bet against this!”
Hell if the risk-reward is there, I'll do it. I'm sure if I take the other side of the "good" bet, I betterbe compensated heavily in terms of risk reward and the premium for taking on their risk is cheap when the bet isn't in my favor
Bad enough I have a gambling addiction with poker... Now this...
In order to even get started on this... There will have be ALOT of math involved... probability, statistics... etc etc... Extremely complicated.
Update: I googled the company and its started by MIT geeks. Now... I'm not surprised.
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