2+2 Candidate HF curious with some concerns


Can you learn to love it again?
Did the club thing in undergrad and actually enjoyed it. Lost the trading muscle after years of being heads down in IB/PE and tight compliance rules. Now I’m not reading 10-Ks at night or tracking stocks 24/7 like some people claim to. Is this a death sentence? Can the passion come back once you’re actually investing again, or does the fact that I’m not obsessively following markets in my free time mean I’m not built for this?
Is individual skill even real or is this just survival bias?
From what I’ve read, alpha at the pod level comes from risk management and diversification, not individual PM brilliance. Mathematically it seems like you’re just rolling the dice… if you’re in the 60% who survive each year and compound that luck, you make a fortune. If not, you wash out. Are we all just pretending skill matters when it’s really just variance? Or is there actually a way to know if you’re good vs. lucky?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Seems like the intense SMs or cushy SM seats are even worse in this regard.
Bonus points if anyone did MM or SM por 2+2 and love it or regret it and why, thanks!

10 Comments
 
  1. You haven’t lost any “trading muscle” as an undergad with IB/PE background, you never had one to begin with
  2. You don’t need to be following the markets 24/7, nor do you need to read every line of the Ks and Qs… work smart, not hard. Smart analysts know what to spend time on vs what’s going to lead you down a rabbit hole. That’s skill, not luck. That’s said, you do need to enjoy your work, you need to be excited to learn and read (a lot)… without that you won’t survive long.
  3. Luck matters… but if you’re a skilled analyst, you reduce your reliance on luck for favorable outcomes on your trades
  4. Being “unlucky” on a trade is 90% of the time a cope out for not doing the right work
  5. A great PM knows how to manage risk and build a team that can run a tight process… that’s not luck, that’s skill. That‘s a team you want to join.. the opportunity to join such a seat though… requires skills but is mostly luck
 

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