Can you teach investing acumen?
Alright boys,
Curious to know if people can teach investing acumen? Is it nurture or nature? I know it’s very difficult to last in the HF world. Can you take a “random” with above average IQ and make them a great investor. I ask because I come from a medical background and people say doctors aren’t great investors but they are obviously brilliant. Would like to get a debate going on this…
You can make them learn about the different methods, where to look for data, what to look for data-wise and etc.
But you can’t make them do appropriate choices. There may not even be a definite appropriate choice, many things are subjective.
For instance, let’s use TMT. You could have an investor arguing in 2021 about how using Revenue multiples is absolutely ridiculous as it incredibly aggressive to miss the picture about profitability given that, while interest rates were artificially low, they wouldn’t stay like that forever and the growth projections did not account for that (especially considering Covid QE was insane in quantity which exacerbated asset bubbles).
On the other hand, TMT HFs were making stupid bank being incredibly aggressive, and since the point of the profession is to make money, hard to argue against it. We know how that turned out but nobody is a soothsayer.
Imho, when finance guys like Greenblatt, Graham, William Bernstein etc say doctors make bad investors, I notice that they say that doctors have the following blind spots:
1) They are too brilliant. They are doctors so they think they are smarter than the rest, which is justified tbh in many cases. Therefore, they think everything else is easy and they dont put in the effort to properly study finance theory and best practices. Their ego doesn't allow them to. They dont listen and they make oversimplifications
2) They are too busy so they don't have the time to properly build their acumen
3) They are wired to think a certain way. They're too logical and methodological and they can't grasp that markets are irrational and illogical
So i think that as long as you can be aware of these potential blind spots, they are relatively easy to parse
I am a doctor with multiple yrs experience in MBB consulting. Toyed with PE investing route for a while, actively manage all my personal wealth in stocks. Not pro investor but have a good grasp.
My 2c — doctors are experts and brilliant in medicine. They know nothing about finance, and in my experience sometimes don’t know how much they don’t know outside of medicine. Further, medicine is a field where learning is relatively straightforward insofar as the resources available to you (literature, syllabus for training, other resources) are clear and directed. Investing IMO requires less fact finding/‘knowing’ things as going on a journey of learning a bit of content, thinking deeply, hearing others perspectives/takes and seeing patterns emerge over time.
To answer the question directly - I think a combination of reading top books on investing and seeing what jives with you (eg value investing), reading annual reports/public docs, reading other investors takes on certain situations (Value Investors Club is good), coming up with your own theses about a situation, and then (importantly) once you know enough actually start doing it and learn along the way.
I’m also a doctor about to join a HF.
Completely agree. ER is a lot more about digging deep and the physician path everything is laid out from start to finish.
Entirely nature. You're naturally gifted with the ability to model and form investment theses. You'll never make it as an investor if you have to learn anything that doesn't come naturally.
Of course you can. Isn't that what Cramer does to 1000s of people every day?
elements of both nature and nurture, but likely some are more predisposed to be better.
interesting view from Warren's Buffett's biographer, Alice Schroeder, in which she says Buffett views a lot of these skills as innate:
Alice: Warren’s skills as an investor have often been compared with a musician, and I think that’s exactly right. The “money mind” is an instinct, almost a sixth sense, of sniffing where there is an opportunity to make money and knowing how to exploit it. Somebody who is starting businesses when they are six years old is different than the average kid. When you apply focus (which he often talks about) to those three qualities then your skills as an investor are turbo-charged.
Miguel: How can we develop more of a money mind? Is this the part that is more innate or is it more a consequence of him being an entrepreneur at a young age?
Alice: I have had many conversations with him about this. He thinks it’s innate. There are people who just naturally gravitate towards activities that make money. That’s not a value judgment. Something else might be more socially useful. However, I also believe the average person can be trained to become much more “money aware.” You can train yourself to do an amazing amount … to go from being average to becoming good. But you will have to work at it in a way that someone like Warren will not.
Adding on that vein, Buffett's nature without nurture would be useless. Buffett's hard work and his chance encounters, e.g., getting rejected from HBS which gave him the redirection to study under Graham at CBS, made him reach his full potential. There's probably folks who were born with the money mind but didn't nurture it or didn't even know they have a money mind (getting forced into medicine by their parents for example).
Similarly, maybe some people out of the thousands of prospects, interns and even current analysts who flock into the buyside or IB thinking they all have the money mind, missed their calling (maybe they were born with a 'rock mind' - a talent to be great at starting a rock band)
Obviously brilliant? You need to rethink your definition of brilliant. There are very few professions that qualify someone as brilliant based on job title. MD is not one nor are 99% of finance jobs.
I think being a great investor mostly comes down to being obsessed with investing and markets. Subject to some minimum IQ threshold of course. It’s hard to teach obsession…
Yes you can train someone to be a good investor, just as you can train someone to be a good singer or musician. The difference between good and great is luck, marketing, network, and hustle.
Super low value comment but just couldn't resist letting you know that I disagree with the sentiment that doctors are all "obviously brilliant". I personally know some complete boneheads that are soon-to-be doctors.
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