Consumer Modeling
Sup monkeys, I want to get a little bit more comfortable modeling consumer companies since I cover another sector. What are some companies with a handful of revenue streams that have detailed filings (k's and q's) which give enough info to make very detailed revenue builds from scratch?
NKE
I you want to look at staples, PG splits out it's revs by category and they report the different growth drivers (Price/Mix, Volumes, FX, and M&A) as well as segment op profits. The majority large-cap packaged food and HPC names do a good job as well splitting out the different segments. PM also gives a ton of data in their 8-Ks for their segments but making that model is a nightmare...
Discretionary names in Toys, Cruiselines, and some different vehicle categories are really interesting. They have a retail vs wholesale component and are (in some cases) cyclical.
Big CPGs like KO are good practice as well.
I’d stay away from a lot of retailers/restaurant unless you have data to make it more interesting, most of them report really basic top line stuff (comps) without drivers - although some will break out transactions/traffic vs price/mix which is something.
I feel like a decent number of those businesses disclose store counts and can potentially get into sales per square foot etc. Store count and SSS growth and economics per store is a great topline build exercise and can be a good case study. Tractor supply is one that comes to mind with a lot of disclosure here (TSCO)
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