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drilling down most important drivers is just math - playing with sensitivity in excel on your assumptions on each of the following variables can help indicate what matters most. what drives revenue? most businesses are some form of pxq. what are the costs? labour, materials, logistics. subtract one from the other and you get eps. the downstream question is what is going on in the company/industry/world today that will impact the price or quantity of the goods sold, or the cost paid on labour/material/logistics. if you have a different view on any of those variables versus consensus you have a thesis.

verbal is just communication - that comes with practice. goal is to send the message "here's an idea that can make you money" not "look how much research i did i found this news article or this tweet or this document" ie., don't list info - cut to the chase. 

the excel exercise will help as you'll only focus on what's important. ie., no one cares if eps misses 5% this q on an amortization of goodwill if guidance is raised for next year because of macro. that earnings report will be a net positive and the stock will be higher. so your q'ly number may have been correct but you missed the forest for the trees and you would have lost money.  

also - you don't need alt data to make a thesis. alt data is just higher frequency data that reflects itself in quarterly earnings. don't need it to take a view.

 

Q — what is considered a “strong case” for pods. Did the 4 hour ones and did the whole 3S, sidecar analysis, etc and still got dinged.


Wondering if someone could paint what a strong candidate looks like w/ this.

 

Really depends on the PM, but a few things most will focus on, please feel free to add as this is not meant to be an exhaustive list :

  • How do you react to pushback? Do you just shutdown the opposite argument or are you able to take in new info on the spot, walk others through how that changes your thesis and still retain conviction in your thesis?
  • Can you think like an investor? i.e. do you understand what will move the share price on a certain time horizon? (your pitch will need to fit the strategy of the pod, so don't pitch a deep fundamental 12-24 months story to a trader) 
  • Are you able to think probabilistically about different scenario and catalyst paths?
  • Can you pitch a strong hedge? In order to do so you will need a good understanding of sector/industry dynamics
 

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