Lateral to MM or stay at my SM?

Hey everyone. I'm trying to decide between an offer at one of the big 4 multi-managers vs staying at my single manager. My background: 2 years in banking, 3 years L/S at a $2.5B fund (covered the same sector my entire career). I have an offer to join a PM who is switching MMs. They have a good track record and I would be the fifth and final member of the team. I know 2 members of the team from conferences/meetings, and they're sharp guys. This could be one of the better pods in my space. I would "report" directly to the PM

I've always dismissed MMs for the usual reasons: job is unstable, trading quarters, terrible WLB. However, I'm debating taking the offer for the $$$. My fund had a good 2021, after a great 2020. My all-in comp was mid-6 figs last year, but will be down this year despite similar individual performance this year. So my comp is basically capped at the current level with room for downside

On the other hand, the MM has a first year guarantee that blows my current comp out of the water along with much better economics if we do well. It would obviously suck to get fired down the road which is the likely outcome, but I'd literally double my comp my first year no matter what.

It's a risky move, but it seems like it's worth it given the guarantee. What do you guys think?

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