SM Job prospects in 2-3 years (serious)
I’m here for whatever speculation you want to throw out. Nobody has a crystal ball but give it your best shot.
My rationale: 2-3 years from now when I graduate from HBS it will be a perfect time to get an SM HF job especially if I want to do tech and consumer. Most recessions aren’t that long and I don’t count on runaway inflation. Multiples will be low with 5-7 of expansion ahead if history does in fact rhyme with itself. I mean median cloud SaaS multiples are at like 2015 levels with fundamentals as good as ever.
Thoughts?
If LPs want levered tech exposure they'll just buy TQQQ, soz
Issue with the established SMs is this basically unprecedented drawdown and the maths to get back above their high water marks. Maybe Coatue does ok but lot of SMs going to have to more or less convert to family office or close imo
So I guess the move would be first time fund of someone with a good pedigree / track record if you're willing to roll the dice a bit
Which SMs do you think would close down or convert into a family office in the near future?
Tiger Global, Whalerock are the rumors I am hearing.
Didn't Sundheim borrow $1 billion to do privates? I am sure that's going well.
It takes 2 years in business school to learn how to buy levered beta?
No, it takes two years of peacocking to get a shot at learning how to buy levered beta. And that is, if you go to the right school to be on their radar.
Dick, where do you see the future of public market investing going? It's like companies are now going public when 1) they're in trouble or 2) they've been extensively milked by VC and PE investors who are dumping their bags on retail. In that context, do you think that institutional capital will flow to private markets?
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