Thoughts on investment time horizon
On the macro level, making directional bets on thematic ideas such as ESG, EVs, geopolitics, as well as the general progression of gdp are really hard to predict/time as an increasing amount of variables come into play (which compounds the amount of possible scenarios) when the investment horizon increases. Ultimately, volatility and conviction are the key factors to keep in mind when making long term bets.
Hence, to make a more certain investment, how about decreasing the time horizon? Well the smaller the time horizon, the more randomness goes into play in price action and the less assets are correlated.
Therefore, the optimal investment time horizon should be short enough that the macro variables that are limited to minimize uncertainty while also long enough that asset correlations work and randomness is minimal. How long would you say is the most optimal investment horizon for macro? For fundamental? For L/S?
For macro, I would say maybe 1-2 years investment horizon with a tactical overlay? Or are my assumptions wrong?
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