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Bump, out of curiosity.
you didn’t
What did you do in your role? Are you a sell-side strategist? If so, how did you help funds market time?
Some markets like ETFs and liquid options are practically efficient for all intents and purposes; you won't be able to arb them (but you can still make directional bets). Other markets like equities are arguably inefficient due to information disparities and the prevalence of qualitative factors & biases in valuation. Alpha represents a potential "arbitrage" between individual stocks and indices (not really but you can think of it like that).
In the long term it is unlikely that just stock picking can significantly outperform market indices, but even 1% is a pretty big deal as long as it's consistent. Also, hedge funds have a variety of tools to further bump up returns, such as access to more leverage and better information than the average investor. Theory tells us that markets are only efficient because someone out there is making money by setting accurate prices; this is the role of firms like hedge funds.
I read a paper that analyzed various hedge funds and concluded that in general, fund managers were able to generate a small amount of alpha, but on average, fees exceeded alpha. So whether or not hedge funds actually provide value is debatable. But as long as someone is willing to fund it, that must mean that there's some kind of investor demand that's being met, at the very least.
You're trolling, right? First of all, *obviously* market timing helps if you can do it well. All those academic studies just say that its very very hard to get right.
But even ignoring that -- some people think markets are efficient, some people don't. Some people think hedge funds outperform, some people don't. Etc etc. But nobody thinks the advantage of hedge funds is *market timing*. Nobody picks a hedge fund to buy the exact same stocks I would have bought myself, but do it with better timing. I don't know you or your specialty, but I don't believe you "made a career for over a decade helping hedge funds time the market." At best, maybe you were helping them do other things (like asset selection).
It absolutely does though. The people who claim it doesn't either work at a place where it doesn't matter (e.g. big LOs) or aren't smart enough to figure it out and/or are naïve enough to believe in the EMH lol
Listen here Bernie Madoff, your time will come keep running and enjoying for now.
Did you "help" them by buying at the top and selling at the bottom?
Your post history says you were a large cap equity analyst at a boutique IB (and founded some crypto startup). So does being a large cap equity analyst = advising hedge funds on market timing?
I do try to be polite on the internet, but the association with crypto is unacceptable. Learn how to fucking read. The startup was not crypto related. That's probably why I failed to get funded.
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