Will volatility ever return?
After this looming recession, will we just have a macro regime similar to 2002-2006 and 2012-2019, with bull markets, quantitative easing, and low volatility, or do any of you suspect a new macro regime that could cause new investment opportunities.
Quickest rate raising cycle in decades means that I wouldn't bet on 2017 repeating. It could and gun to my head I'd say SPX near 5000 by year end but so much can break after raising rates to this level after years of ZIRP. There could be all sorts of troubles brewing under the surface that we don't think about. Like who knew what an LDI was before October last year? And then suddenly it was blowing up books left and right. We could easily be in a 2007-style calm before the storm moment. So my ideal position if I had to punt macro would be long risk but overhedged with some cheap puts (they're as cheap as ever right now due to piss poor skew despite low vols).
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