Can Turkey be the next Venezuela or Syria ?
Net Reserves of the CBRT: -46,5B$ (07.12.21) / -65,1B$ (20.01.22)
World Press Freedom Index: 153/180 (China:177)(Russia:150)(Canada:14)(Sweden:3)
Foreign Investors in BIST(Borsa Istanbul [Stock Exchange]) : 40%, lowest since 1990s
CBRT Interest Rate: 14% (Planned to reduced to 5% till the end of this year)
Official 2021 Inflation Rate: 36,08%
Unofficial 2021 Inflation Rate: 81,06%
Incompetent, Scared, Angry and Sick President
Erdoğan stood at the altar (mihrab) of the mosque and delivered a speech, openly threatening her, mentioning "ripping off her tongue".
https://ahvalnews.com/sezen-aksu/pop-icon-sezen-a…
Erdogan renews reference to Islamic teachings on interest rate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-1…
“I gave the instruction to our foreign minister and said ‘You will immediately handle the persona non grata declaration of these 10 ambassadors,’”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/23/world/europe/e…
Now Erdoğan is angry that the finance ministry and central bank are constantly revising downward their goals for the lira’s value, Sağlam said. They are having difficulty keeping the currency stronger than 14 per dollar currently, he said.
https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-lira/erdogan-angry-…
Turkey will require exporters to convert a quarter of their revenues to liras, the latest step in the government’s efforts to boost its reserves and support the local currency.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-0…
Turkey’s banking regulator has advised commercial lenders not to distribute dividends from profits in 2021, when a currency crash eroded banks’ cash buffers, people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-2…
Turkey’s banking regulator has filed a criminal complaint against more than 20 people, including former central bank governors, journalists and an economist, over alleged attempts to manipulate the country’s exchange rate in a move that could chill criticism of the government’s unorthodox economic policies.
https://www.ft.com/content/f37d3143-aab4-4fd6-b0c6-5c14313e0e8c
Sourasky Medical Center Deputy Director-General Prof. Itzhak Shapira — a trained cardiologist — advises Turkish leader, which might point to possible heart problems
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sjvrugv6y
Incompetent, Weird and Conspiracy Theorist Finance Minister
Nureddin Nebati – appointed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan early in December, following the resignation of his predecessor – told the interviewer that "the United States central bank does not belong to the public. It is in the hands of five families."
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20211231-turkey…
"I won't give a number now," he told a surprised television interviewer. "Can you look into my eyes? What do you see?... The economy is the sparkle in the eyes."
"We have put aside orthodox policies, now it is heterodox policies," Nebati told businesses two weeks ago, referring to the rate cuts, which run counter to mainstream economic theory that fighting inflation requires higher rates, not lower.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/turkeys-ne…
A business person who had dealings with Nebati during his time as deputy minister described him to Reuters as an extrovert and a "storyteller" who has little direct economic training.
As a deputy finance minister, Nebati would sometimes stand in for Erdogan son-in-law and former finance minister Berat Albayrak to meet foreign executives looking to invest in Turkey. On one occasion, Nebati "avoided an executive's queries and instead told stories of his childhood," one business person was cited as saying, adding that the executive left without making any investment commitments.
https://www.intellinews.com/mocked-as-the-nebati-…
Possibility of getting shorted by Soros
https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/newsroom/o…
Possibility of sanctions by the EU
https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/12/03/council-europ…
Possibility of Energy Crisis
The natural gas distributors were asked to reduce supply to 60% for large consumers except for gas used for heating, the Turkish sector officials told Reuters, adding that schools and hospitals will be exempt.
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkis…
FX Protected Savings Account ???????
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys…
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None of this is a financial advice. I'm just sharing my observations.
Personally, I'm shorting Turkish Lira and expecting very-high returns in the coming years.
Please, share your opinion.
I'm certain that this ''Finance Minister'' guy is making troll posts on WSO
You are not incorrect and I do believe there is a religious angle to the anti-interest rate lobby. Turkey is uninvestable right now IMO given the lack any rationale policy making and violent swings driven by 1 person. That said with TRY off ~75% over the past 5 years and every other related asset having underperformed dramatically i'm not sure it makes a great short. The policy unpredictability cuts both ways- imagine being short before the deposit scheme announced in Dec...would have been very ugly.
In fact, related to other comment Turkey could be one of the great trades if you get regime trade. Low debt, well run corporate sector, strong banking sector, and great location just give it competitive advantages other EM's don't face. But who knows when that happens?
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