Greed Is Good, Gridlock Is Better | The Daily Peel | 11/9/22

Nov 9, 2022 | Peel #334

Market Snapshot

Stocks marched higher Tuesday as early midterm results showed a locked-up Congress taking shape.

More gridlock means less market meddling, and history suggests strong gains in the wake of midterm elections.

market summary


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Banana Bits


Macro Monkey Says

We the People Want Weed, Gambling, and Guns

Legal mary jane looks like it’ll continue spreading across the country, but gambling and gun props will be hotly contested.

9 figure campaign spending has been the norm this midterm cycle, and it’ll be interesting to see how many votes it buys.

  • Prop 27 in California, which would allow online gambling, has attracted nearly $400mn in campaign funding
  • Iowa and Oregon are proposing opposite gun laws. You can probably figure out which side each is on
  • Minimum wage boosts and tax hikes on high rollers could shake the economies of some states

The broad trend here seems to point towards loosening social restrictions. Most of the country has supported legal ganja for a while, but now states like Colorado are dipping their toes into magic mushrooms.

Back in the old days, if you wanted to throw a hundred bucks on an NFL parlay, you used to have to track down that bookie that your cousin knew. Now, FanDuel lures you into the app with free offers that get you hooked on the rush.

There’s a lot of dough to be made through vices, and governments are keen to grab their share. Tax revenues from weed have helped Colorado maintain hefty surpluses, and its stoned residents enjoy new infrastructure and other goodies.

The morality police aren’t as powerful when billions are rolling in from legal vices, which is probably why more and more states stand to legalize and tax the sh*t out of them, making everyone happy.


Meme of the day

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Source


What's Ripe

Planet Fitness ($PLNT) ↑ 8.58% ↑

  • “‘Peloton’s gain is Planet’s gain’” pretty much says it all for $PLNT of late
  • People have realized that without a ton of space, home gyms kinda suck, and they’re returning to traditional gyms in droves

Kohl’s ($KSS) ↑ 7.34% ↑

  • Investors gave their departing CEO a $KSS goodbye on their way out the door, sending the stock surging on the news
  • The turnaround hadn’t been progressing well, but a new face in charge and a surprisingly-good Q3 put shareholders in a good mood

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What's Rotten

Lyft ($LYFT) ↓ 22.91% ↓

  • Higher trip prices gave the top line a shot in the arm, but lower demand than expected has investors worried
  • Layoffs announced last week are a step towards profitability, but it’ll be an uphill battle if Uber’s content to keep burning cash

Nintendo ($NTDOY) ↓ 4.31% ↓

  • Remember when buying a Switch was damn near impossible? Nintendo wishes it could have that demand back
  • Market saturation and chip shortages contributed to a lower sales outlook for the balance of the year

Data Peel

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Source


Thought Banana

A Proper Silver Spoon Tax

Wealth taxes have been notoriously difficult for governments to implement, with most preferring to take their share once inheritances are passed down.

The U.K. may be about to reach its hand even deeper into inheritors’ pockets.

  • Britain is staring down a fiscal hole the size of Singapore’s entire government budget
  • The inheritance tax actually wouldn’t go up—it would just freeze in place for several years, which is basically an increase when inflation is double digits
  • It’ll be an interesting case study to see if wealth tax hikes can pad government coffers without sacrificing growth

Staring down a slow decline is a sh*tty feeling, and Brits are looking for any way to kickstart sputtering growth. The Reagan-Thatcher doctrine of trickle-down economics seemed to die along with Liz Truss’s reign as Prime Minister, so it’s time to crank up taxes again.

The big question: If the U.K. can fill its budget hole through wealth taxes, will other large economies follow suit?


Banana Brain Teaser

Yesterday — Why are manholes round instead of square?

If they’re square, it’s possible for the cover to slip down the hole (diagonally). A round manhole cannot fall down no matter which way it is rotated because its width in any direction is greater than the opening of the hole.

Today — It’s 50 bananas off the WSO Real Estate Course. LFG!

A ladder hangs over the side of a ship anchored in the port. The bottom rung of the ladder touches the water. The distance between the rungs is 30cm, and the length of the ladder is 270cm. If the tide is rising at a rate of 15cm per hour, how long will it be before the water reaches the top rung?

Shoot us your guesses at [email protected] with the subject line Banana Brain Teaser or simply click here to reply!


Wise Investor says

“Time in the market beats timing the market.” — Ken Fisher


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