How much money do I need?

Has anyone built a long term financial model that plans out their entire lives and determines exactly how much money the need/want to guide their careers? I’m trying to model Income, expenses, savings & net worth year-by-year. Also, Capital needs for big goals (early retirement, kids’ college, home purchases). I also want to add scenarios for different tax regimes and when to realize LTCG/STCT and incorporate strategies to minimize taxes through various tax advantaged structure. I also want to stress test against various life events like illness, lawsuit, divorce, deep market crashes, or other disasters.

Questions:

  1. Has anyone built a model like this end-to-end?

  2. How did you layer in tax calculations and tax-optimization tactics?

  3. What frameworks or rules did you use to decide when to rebalance, realize gains/losses, or shift allocations?

  4. Do you have templates, or example workbooks you’d be willing to share?

  5. What pitfalls should I watch out for when combining extreme scenarios, taxes and portfolio-trigger logic?

4 Comments
 

Based on the most helpful WSO content, here’s what you need to know about building a comprehensive long-term financial model:

  1. Has anyone built a model like this end-to-end?

    • Yes, several users on WSO have shared their experiences with building personal financial models. These models typically include income, expenses, savings, and net worth projections year-by-year. They also account for major life goals like early retirement, home purchases, and education expenses. Some users have even incorporated stress tests for life events like market crashes, illness, or divorce.
  2. How did you layer in tax calculations and tax-optimization tactics?

    • Tax calculations can be layered by:
      • Accounting for changes in tax brackets and deductions over time.
      • Incorporating strategies like maximizing contributions to tax-advantaged accounts (e.g., 401(k), IRA, HSA).
      • Timing the realization of long-term capital gains (LTCG) and short-term capital gains (STCG) to minimize tax impact.
      • Using tools like Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and high-deductible health plans for tax efficiency.
    • Some users also recommend setting aside a portion of bonuses for investments and ensuring that tax-advantaged contributions are maximized annually.
  3. What frameworks or rules did you use to decide when to rebalance, realize gains/losses, or shift allocations?

    • Frameworks often include:
      • Setting a target asset allocation and rebalancing when allocations deviate by a certain percentage.
      • Realizing gains/losses based on tax implications and market conditions.
      • Using a long-term investment horizon to guide allocation shifts, especially during market downturns or life events.
      • Stress testing the portfolio against extreme scenarios to ensure resilience.
  4. Do you have templates, or example workbooks you’d be willing to share?

    • While specific templates or workbooks are not directly available in the WSO dataset, users often recommend creating a custom model tailored to your unique financial situation. Start with a basic budget that tracks income and expenses, then expand it to include projections for savings, investments, and major life goals. You can also back-check your budget by categorizing past expenses (e.g., using credit card statements) to ensure accuracy.
  5. What pitfalls should I watch out for when combining extreme scenarios, taxes, and portfolio-trigger logic?

    • Common pitfalls include:
      • Overcomplicating the model with too many variables, making it difficult to maintain or interpret.
      • Failing to account for unexpected expenses or life events, which can derail projections.
      • Ignoring the impact of inflation on long-term goals like retirement or education.
      • Underestimating the tax implications of portfolio adjustments or withdrawals.
      • Not setting realistic assumptions for investment returns, savings rates, or expenses.

For a more detailed guide, you might find it helpful to explore the WSO forums on personal financial modeling and budgeting. They offer insights from professionals who’ve successfully navigated similar challenges.

Sources: Managing Your Money - Building a Personal Financial Model, Managing Your Money - Building a Personal Financial Model, Work to live, not live to work. Low-stress finance jobs..., Cheat sheet to understand ‘Stress Test’ Results, How much have you saved?

I'm an AI bot trained on the most helpful WSO content across 17+ years.
 
Most Helpful

I think you’re overcomplicating it. Look at some retirement calculators based on how much you have saved, monthly savings, return, etc. Some are very simple (Dave Ramsey calc) others are more complex (Fidelity tool). If using Ramsey, model 10% as base and 5% as downside. If using Fidelity, it will run these scenarios for you. Theirs is pretty comprehensive

 

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