11 Comments
 
"CRE" Why would you sell after it tanked?

This isn't the bottom im. I de-risked my various investment accounts. Just way too much headline risk rn.

Array
 

There is very little that is predictable about the securities markets. If events and their impacts were predictable, in a way, investing would be considered risk free. Would you mind posting the data supporting negative stock market reactions to pandemics?

 

Predictable in the same way as forecasting for weather , it’s not 100 percent it’s a game of stats. SARS-12.8 Influenza-6.9 MERS-7.3 Ebola-5.8 Zika12.8 Then you need to factor in the risk from the market like for instance ( our over inflated rally because of fed actions and world negative yields) so much higher risk for pullback. Most similar to the market from a chart perspective of SARS and SWINE FLU next study the the risk of the virus . This one had a up to 2 week period with no symptoms so it is a major risk for spreading. All this for sure guarantees a 5% pullback a min beyond that thus far no good news to exit your short or perhaps cash positions. Since the market sells faster than it recovers due to fear being such a strong emotion, you will have plenty of time to change direction when a rally beings on good news

 
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I am not sure if I am smarter than justphresh but I can try to shed some light on the situation. The stock market has experienced quite a bit of volatility this past week and investors have lost large amounts of money. With that said, prior to this week, stocks have mostly gone up for 10 years, which is highly unusual. Markets experience corrections (10% decline) and bear markets (20%+ decline) periodically. No one knows specifically what causes a correction or bear market before it happens. However, they do seem to occur when valuations are high. Have fears about the corona virus caused the stock market to decline? Your guess is as good as mine. Investors might be just as concerned about Bernie Sanders becoming the POTUS.

You might want to consider evaluating your goals and objectives as well as your risk tolerance. If your risk tolerance was high prior to this week, it should still be high. One week of market declines should not substantially change risk tolerance. If the losses have changed your risk tolerance, then your risk tolerance probably was not high prior to this week.

 
  1. COVID-19 is spread by a novel coronavirus that is accelerating in its global spread. Countries have not done enough to prepare their public health systems for a new global pandemic (which is what we seem to be heading towards). This means that countries will have to resort to GDP-damaging measures, such as quarantines and isolationism, which increase trade barriers by reducing the flow of goods, services, and people.
  2. This translates into a reduction in expected GDP. Just calculate the expected global GDP number the day before the virus broke out in China. Divide it by 252. That's the daily damage done if trade stops. You can approximate this better, but it should give you a clear idea that growth will be lower by every day the virus is not contained, and will be exacerbated by punitive measures countries employ to stop it from spreading.
  3. Compare this with the prior growth forecast-- the IMF expected a rebound in 2H of 2020. That base case is now being challenged, and the market expects it to lose. Bofa and GS came out today saying their earnings forecast for 2020 is flat and that global growth will be under 3%.
  4. Input this new estimate into your ERP model = earnings growth * dividend payout ratio + GDP growth = 0% * 0.75 + 3% = 3% growth to US equity markets -- compare this to bond yields of 1.6% -- if your max (100% equity allocation) return is 3% with a std of 16% (historical realized vol), versus 1.6% with a std of 3%, which one will you overallocate to? Bonds clearly.
  5. What should you do? With imp. vol. so high, cut your equity holdings in half and put it in income producing assets (such as non-convertible preferreds or bonds) or lower volatility stocks (defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, telecom, etc.). Use options to establish beta exposure if the market rallies in the short term with 2-4% of your portfolio. Use your excess cash wisely by investing in stocks you think might be super depressed ("if everyone's going to be locked up, maybe we'll see an increase in NFLX subs?").
  6. Once the VIX starts to move down you can reallocate to equities.

Note: not financial advice, speak to your Merrill dude

 

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